Donald J Trump has written a new campaign playbook. Observers maintain that the disrupter is now rewriting the governance playbook as well. This column is no expert on political forecasts. But it cannot help but spot a few patterns sitting thousands of miles away. Those patterns suggest Trump may go on to become a transactional leader, much more transactional and much less of a moralist than his predecessors.
On the home front, Trump's cabinet picks suggest he wants to be surrounded by those who can help him lock things fast. A hedge-funder for Secretary of Treasury, an oilman for Secretary of State, a fast food chap for Secretary of Labor, a business mogul for Secretary of Commerce, all point towards a tendency to get things swiftly done vis--vis Trump's economic agenda, not getting bogged down in intricacies of policy battles. The conflicting agenda of Trumps economic team, however, may put spanner in the works.
His initial wheeling and dealing in domestic business has ruffled some feathers. But it's classic power play. After getting his way with Carrier and Ford to keep jobs in America, Trump has gone after Boeing and Lockheed Martin over lucrative federal defense contracts. While past US presidents have occasionally intervened in major business deals, Trumps regular talk on such deals has evoked concerns that he might use his bully pulpit (federal contracts and import tariffs) to force major American firms to keep doing business in the US.
We dont know whether Pax Americana is dead yet, but Trump's posture on the external front also has a transactional streak. Throwing a brick wall at the decades-long US adherence to the One China Policy, Trump has put up for bargain Taiwan, which might be the most affected party after Trump and Xi are done with their muscle flexing. Trump thinks he can do business with Russia, so there hasn't been so much as a whiff of suspicion over the alleged Russian hacking of US elections.
Carrot and stick is also at work, where he is showing engagement but is also aware of the leverage America has. Despite his vociferous opposition to Nafta, Trump has now started cozying to the Mexican business establishment. He has promised to visit Pakistan, too, hoping to get Islamabad on board for the complete drawdown next door.
With a transactional approach Trump is likely to get his way and get things done that matter to his base rather fast. But the short term gains may prove transient as long term costs weigh in over time. To begin with, a transactional America would start making even more compromises overseas just to get things done. That will further undermining the American claim of providing moral leadership to the world and upset the rules-based international order.
Forcing American firms to Make in US would render US goods uncompetitive and hurt the very people it was supposed to help as shoppers will suddenly find lower value for their purchases at grocery marts and shopping malls. Intervening in federal contracting process may induce uncertainty and make services even more expensive for the US government to acquire, observers warn. But it wont likely matter to Trump, who is looking to score quick wins that cheer his base.