Militant groups and 11 countries are funnelling the military aid needed for a full-scale war into Somalia, widening the threat of conflict into the Horn of Africa and beyond, sources said a United Nations report will say.
Several security experts familiar with the content of an arms embargo violations report to the UN Security Council, due out next week, said the build-up of military supplies and personnel was aggressive even by Somali standards.
Reuters has not seen the report, which covers the period from June when Somali's religious group took control of Mogadishu from US-backed warlords, but interviewed several experts who have seen the final version.
They say the report says Somalia's powerful movement has in its ranks about 1,000 battle-hardened foreign jihadists and volunteer trainers expert in assassination, suicide bombing and sniping from militant groups including Lebanon's Hezbollah.
Syria, Iran, Libya, Sudan, Egypt, Eritrea, Djibouti and Saudi Arabia have all provided weapons or supplies - including food, uniforms, fuel and doctors - to the religious group. "They are preparing for a fight. There exists an agreement between the countries that says 'This country provides this, this country provides that,'" one expert told Reuters.
Besides the militants who have operated in Lebanon, Iraq, Afghanistan and even Indonesia, there are thousands of conventional soldiers inside Somalia from Horn of Africa rivals Ethiopia and Eritrea, the experts said, quoting the report.
The experts said Ethiopia has between 5,000 and 10,000 troops with armoured vehicles in Somalia, while Eritrea has about 2,500 including specialists in anti-aircraft combat. Yemen and Uganda have given weapons and other support - including about 100 soldiers in Uganda's case - to President Abdullahi Yusuf's government, the report says.
Ethiopia has said it has several hundred military trainers there. Eritrea has denied any involvement in Somalia. Uganda has made no comment, but some officials admit they have sent police trainers there.
UN officials had no comment. The 1992 embargo on Somalia, already awash in guns, is the most widely flouted in the world. What emerges from the report, the experts say, is a potential war of coalitions split along Muslim-Christian lines - not just between the shaky government and the group who have dashed its hopes to impose central rule. The experts say the report shows the potential for an asymmetrical Iraq-style conflict involving bombings and assassinations that could spread into east and central Africa.