Eurozone figures to show continued robust growth

13 Nov, 2006

Economic data to be released this week are expected to highlight continued robust growth in the 12-nation eurozone, underpinned by recovering sentiment in Germany and tame inflation.
Third-quarter eurozone gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to have risen a provisional 0.7 percent from the second quarter and 2.8 percent year-on-year.
Respective second quarter figures were 0.9 percent and 2.7 percent.
"We expect euro area GDP to post another firm increase in the third quarter," Credit Suisse economists said.
Momentum in Germany, the eurozone's largest economy, is expected to have expanded 0.8 percent in the third quarter from the second and 2.6 percent compared with third quarter 2005, buoyed by investment growth.
In the second quarter, GDP was up 0.9 percent from the first and 2.7 percent on the year.
"All in all, we expect the positive growth momentum of the second quarter to continue with slightly slower speed," HSBC economists said.
"Positive factors absent in the third quarter are the World Cup and the late start of construction activity due to bad weather in March," they said.
Also in Germany, the ZEW economic expectations index is seen recovering to minus-25 in November from October's minus-27.4 following nine consecutive declines.
"The issues of higher policy rates, January's VAT rise and the US slowdown have been apparent for some time and so are likely to have a smaller impact on the survey's expectations component than before," Credit Suisse economists said.
In Italy, GDP is expected to show a provisional rise of 0.6 percent in the third quarter from the second and 1.8 percent year-on-year.
Growth in the second quarter came to 0.5 percent from the first and 1.5 percent on the year.
"The major contribution probably came from the spending on the industrial side of the economy," HSBC economists said.
In the eurozone as a whole, industrial output is forecast to have eased slightly in September in a reversal of August's strong rise. Month-on-month, it is forecast to have fallen 0.1 percent, with an annual increase of 4.3 percent.
In August output rose 1.8 percent from July and 5.4 percent on the year.
"The picture for euro area activity remains bright despite the expected fall," Credit Suisse economists said.
On the inflation front the eurozone harmonised index of consumer prices looks set to be confirmed at a year-on-year rise of 1.6 percent in October compared with September's 1.7 percent, with core inflation unchanged at 1.5 percent.
"Although we forecast euro area HICP inflation in October to be unrevised from the flash estimate of 1.6 percent, there is a significant chance of an upward revision to 1.7 percent," Credit Suisse economists said.
They noted that core inflation may have risen as well, driven by German price rises ahead of the hike in value-added taxes (VAT) in January.
"That could put core inflation at its highest rate for almost two years, which could lead the European Central Bank to conclude that its fears of second-round effects are starting to materialise," they said.

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