The Women Protection Bill passed by the National Assembly may take time to positively impact the life of ordinary women of Pakistan but its political fallout is already creating waves in the cesspool of our national politics.
For one, MMA member Hafiz Hussain Ahmed has announced resigning his seat. For another, PPP's Sher Afgan has jumped unto the PML (Q) bandwagon. But more significant is the submission of a bill by Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain to the National Assembly secretariat to seek enactment of those recommendations of the scholars' committee, that were left out from the bill that was passed on Wednesday.
Shujaat says the new bill is being filed in his personal capacity, giving some meaning to his threat to resign should the adopted bill as law betrayed any signs that its provisions militated against the basic tenets of Islam. His threat to resign would remain on the notice board till the end of the year. If something anti-Islamic is discovered in the just legislated bill by December 31, 2006 he will move for rectification, which if not done he would resign from his seat in the National Assembly.
Political analysts here in the capital ask as to what had forced Shujaat to support the Women Protection Bill (WPB), when it did not fit into his personal beliefs and commitment. Was it the political expediency that he did not want to take a stand mismatching President Musharraf's and thus lose the turf to the Benazir-led faction of the PPP. Or, did he fear rebellion in his party by those members who were all set to vote for the bill as approved by the assembly's select committee.
Reports suggest that he was not alone to be on the horns of this dilemma: Some 40 ruling coalition members, including some stalwarts had not come to the National Assembly defying reasonably strong persuasion. In fact, without the help of PPP-P and a couple of PML (N) members - the bill was passed by voice vote - the government members in themselves did not constitute even the quorum.
A knowledgeable source was of the opinion that the pattern of voting and the latest follow-up developments indicate that a "Republican Party" may be in the offing. This may only be in part the Shujjat's PML (Q), as appears from the Musharraf's change in his call to support "moderates" while till recently he was rallying support for the PML (Q).
The question, the source asked, is that where would Shujjat stand in the emerging political scenario, and then volunteered that the chaudhry from Gujrat may remain in the new pro-Musharraf electoral architecture provided Benazir is not there in person and there is a guarantee that the Punjab would remain with cousin Pervaiz Ilahi.
But equally strong possibility is that Shujaat and his like-minded camp followers may join hands with the religious alliance, which has been defeated in the parliament on the women protection bill. But, paradoxically, the MMA has moved to the centre stage of national politics.
Recent developments in the western border regions and landslide victory of the Democrats in the United States (for their avowal to sharpen focus on instability on Pak-Afghan border) are bound to weigh in with the MMA in the national power balance.
One inevitable outcome of these developments, the source said, could be the Establishment's call for early elections, possibly in March-April next year. The birds are ready to come home to roost, he added.