Dollar nudges higher in London

17 Nov, 2006

The dollar edged up against European currencies on Thursday ahead of US inflation and other data releases, as investors looked for more clues on the likely path of US interest rates.
The dollar got a boost in the previous session after minutes from the Fed's October meeting indicated that reducing inflation was the bank's "greatest concern", reducing expectations the next move in US interest rates will be a cut from the current 5.25 percent. The yen, meanwhile, approached record lows against the euro after the Bank of Japan's Governor Toshihiko Fukui sounded a neutral note on monetary policy, dampening market expectations of higher Japanese rates by the end of the year.
"The market is very nervous after the Fed minutes yesterday. If there is any sign of still-high or even higher prices, there could be mayhem for the dollar," said Chris Turner, head of FX strategy at ING. "With nothing from Japanese officials about room for an early rate move, the default position is for modest yen weakening on the crosses."
The US core consumer price index due at 1330 GMT, a key inflation indicator that strips out food and energy prices, is forecast to show a rise of 0.2 percent on the month and 2.9 percent on the year. The year-on-year rate is expected to match the decade-high pace set in September.
The dollar edged up to $1.2806 per euro by 1247 GMT, nearly a cent above 2-1/2 month lows set last week. It was steady against the yen at 118.06 yen. The euro rose as far as 151.49 yen, compared with record highs of 151.52 set last week, according to Reuters data, before easing to 151.21 yen, steady from the US close.
The yen has struggled against major currencies as Japan's ultra-low interest rates make it an attractive currency for borrowing to fund investments in the assets of higher-yielding countries.
In Japan, most analysts expect the BoJ will raise interest rates by a quarter-point to 0.5 percent in the first quarter of 2007, though euro/yen futures are currently pricing in around a 50 percent chance of a rise next month. Expectations of rising eurozone rates from the current 3.25 percent have meanwhile supported the single currency. Data on Thursday showed final eurozone inflation was 1.6 percent year-on-year in October, in line with forecasts and the flash estimate.

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