Ecuador's wealthiest tycoon and a leftist former finance minister were locked in a tight race before Sunday's run-off election to decide who will become the unstable country's eighth president in a decade.
Polls show Alvaro Noboa, a banana magnate proposing free-market policies, with a slight edge over Rafael Correa, an ally of Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez who promises sweeping reforms to toss out the discredited political old guard.
The race between a pro-US centrist and a left-wing reformer could indicate whether Ecuador will support Washington or Chavez, who is pushing socialist proposals to counter US free trade agreements and policies in the divided region.
Political analysts see Noboa with the advantage after a slim first-round win in October, but Correa has softened his aggressive call for political overhaul and debt reforms which had spooked Wall Street and some middle-class voters. A recent poll showed one out of five Ecuadoreans are still undecided in the obligatory vote.
"This looks like Noboa's to lose. He probably has most of the political establishment behind him," said Riordan Roett at Johns Hopkins University. "Correa is still a popular figure and people interested in change may see him as a better option."
Political instability has battered Ecuador, the world's top banana exporter, over the last ten years during which three presidents were toppled by protests and an unruly congress. Disenchanted with their traditional political class, many Ecuadoreans want change and policies to tackle poverty affecting six out of ten, especially in indigenous villages where many still speak Quechua as their first language.
Ecuador's economy has benefited from soaring oil revenues, but protests this year in poor Amazon regions and by Indian leaders in the mountains demanding more benefits from those riches showed how vulnerable the poor Andean country remains to social upheaval. Noboa, on his third run for the presidency, has lured voters with a populist campaign promising immediate solutions to the country's social ills - jobs, housing and investment.
His television spots urge voters to join a program Noboa says will build 300,000 homes for poor. His campaign stops are festive handouts of cash, computers and even wheelchairs. Investors applaud his market policies, but critics worry he may use political office to benefit his empire, stretching from coffee to real estate. Others point to accusations of child exploitation on his plantations, charges he dismisses.
But Correa has gained dividends by easing his aggressive rhetoric, distancing himself from the Venezuelan leader and promising more employment. He has backed away from his more hard-line vows on debt restructuring.
"We not a country of beggars, we don't need charity handouts, but instead justice, jobs and dignity," Correa yelled at crowds of supporters earlier this week at a rally.
Analysts see Noboa in a stronger position to deliver short-term stability as his Institutional Renewal Party for National Action will hold 28 of the 100 seats in the Congress. Other parties may join his alliance while Correa's presented no legislative candidates.
Correa has already suggested fraud, raising worries of post-election protests, especially if the vote is very close and authorities take a few days to tally the count. "We can expect Correa, should he lose by a small margin, to challenge the election results," said Patrick Esteruelas at political consultancy Eurasia Group. "But he risks being seen as a sore loser rather than a leader to be reckoned with."