Rubber trade was thin on Thursday as most overseas buyers held back with the Tokyo futures market closed for a holiday, traders said. The Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the global trend setter for rubber prices, was still on a downward trend and could fall to the 180-yen per kg level in the medium term, under pressure from rising supply in producing countries, traders said.
"It looks like TOCOM will continue to slide downward tomorrow," said a trader in Thailand, the world's top exporter of the commodity. Technical sentiment has been bearish since the key distant contract fell below the closely watched 200-yen level last week, traders said.
On Wednesday, the benchmark TOCOM rubber contract for April delivery fell 3.5 yen a kg from Tuesday's close to 190.5 yen a kg. April TOCOM rubber fell to a one-year low of 188.6 yen a kg at one point on Wednesday. It has fallen about 14 percent since the start of the month.
"Today is a quiet day. Overseas buyers are waiting on the sidelines. They expect the price to go down further," a Singapore-based trader said. "Although the holiday season is coming, they would prefer to buy cheaper rubber than buy now," he said referring to the Christmas and the New Year holidays.
On the physical market, dry weather in Thailand and Indonesia was expected to bring more rubber onto the market in the next few days, dealers said. There has been little rain in southern Thailand for about a month even though the main growing region is still in the wet season, which started in October and normally lasts until December.
"The weather is good, production is rising, that is why the market is falling," a dealer in the southern Thai town of Hat Yai said. On Thursday, the price of Thai benchmark unsmoked rubber sheet grade 3, or USS3, was down 1 baht a kg at 45.55 baht a kg ($1.25) at the government-run central rubber market in Sprat Thani province.
In Indonesia, the world's second-largest rubber producer after Thailand, rising supply was expected to keep pressure on prices in the next few days, traders said. Rubber was selling at 14,500 rupiah a kg ($1.59) in Plumbing in South Sumatra on Thursday, down from 15,000 rupiah a week.
In Malaysia, where the wet season is normally in the last quarter of the year, almost daily rain has disrupted tapping, limiting supply, traders said. "Rain has been falling almost every evening in the northern part of Malaysia, which is the rubber growing area," a Malaysian dealer said.
"Our intake of raw materials is still not good enough." Thai RSS3 rubber sheet was traded to a tyre maker at $1.50 a kg, free on board, for January shipment, traders said. Indonesian SIR20 block rubber was traded at $0.68-1/4 a pound to a dealer in Singapore for February shipment.