Metals hit historic highs and oil gains

26 Nov, 2006

The price of nickel and platinum hit historic highs last week, while other dollar-sensitive metals such as gold, silver and copper also posted strong gains. After coming under pressure early in the week, oil prices also advanced, while commodities like sugar, coffee, cocoa, wool and rubber retreated.
Cereals and soya were stronger, however.
It has now surged by 150 percent since the start of the year. "In thinner than usual trading conditions because of the US Thanksgiving holiday, base metals extended their recovery from the recent lows, with zinc and nickel leading the charge higher helped by a weaker dollar," UBS bank analyst Robin Bhar said.
Since base metals are traded in dollars, a weaker greenback boosts demand, and prices especially if supplies are limited. "LME base metals were all higher in quiet trade, with many market participants away until Monday because of the US Thanksgiving holiday," according to Michael Davies, analyst at Sucden brokerage house.
"Leading the way was nickel, which set a new all time high as stocks remained at extremely low levels," he said. Other metals also gained. Copper surpassed 7,000 dollars per tonne and tin topped 10,000 dollars.
On the LME, the price of copper for delivery in three months was 7,040.50 dollars per tonne Friday, up from 6,690 dollars a week ago. Aluminium was 2,695 dollar per tonne, up from 2,615 dollars. Zinc was quoted at 4,514.50 dollars per tonne, up from 4,080 dollars.
Nickel rose to 33,400 dollars per tonne from 29,395 dollars last week. Tin was 10,075 dollars per tonne, up from 9,700 dollars. Lead was quoted at 1,580 dollars per tonne, up from 1,494 dollars.
"We don't know if and how it's going to happen," according to Stephen Briggs, analyst at Societe Generale. "If there were any significant buying for this ETF, it would cause grave disruption to the market."
An ounce of platinum surged nearly 12 percent during the sole trading session on Tuesday, beating a new London record at 1,402.50 dollars. Its price fell back slightly amid profit taking.
The platinum market has been in deficit since 1999. Output is expected to hit seven million ounces in 2006, or 20,000 ounces below demand. Though palladium also made gains, its climb was slowed by excess production for the sixth year in a row this year.
"Palladium looks set to remain within its 305-30 dollar range as above ground stockpiles cap the metals upside potential," according to James Moore, of The Bullion Desk.
On the London Platinum and Palladium Market (LPPM), an ounce of platinum was worth 1,192 dollars Friday evening, compared with 1,160 dollars the previous week. Palladium was 328 dollars, compared with 316 dollars.
On the London Bullion Market, an ounce of gold traded for 639.50 dollars at Friday evening's fixing, compared with 620.50 dollars the preceding week.
"I remain bullish towards silver with investors and speculators still keen buyers, while base metal gains add background support," said Moore of The Bullion Desk. Silver is both a precious and industrial metal, which explains why base metal movements affect its price.
On the London Bullion Market, silver traded at 13,37 dollars per ounce at the Friday fixing, compared with 12.75 dollars a week ago.
Prices began the week lower before rebounding by more than 1.30 dollar on Tuesday, as bad weather interrupted exports from Alaska. Loading of crude at the Valdez export terminal were suspended Monday, reducing by up to 75 percent deliveries through the Trans Alaska Pipeline.
Loading resumed gradually on Thursday. Concern about supplies eased Wednesday when the US government announced an increase of 5.1 million barrels in crude stockpiles last week in the United States, or seven times more than expected by analysts.
However, the suspension of some exports from the Italian group ENI in Nigeria on Friday following a new separatist attack, sent prices back upward. The increase in prices is curbed however by lingering scepticism over the intentions of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Opec was at pains to convince the market that it will follow through on a pledge to reduce output by 1.2 million barrels per day in November, and reduce it again in December.
In London, a barrel of Brent North Sea crude for January delivery traded at 60.07 dollars around 1530 GMT Friday, compared with 58.99 dollars from the previous Friday. In New York, a barrel of crude for January delivery traded at 59.88 dollars in electronic trading, up from 58.97 dollars the previous week.
The prices were hit by speculative selling, according to Michael Davies, an analyst with Sucden. "In supply news, the United States Agriculture Department attache in Hanoi said 2006/07 output in Vietnam was forecast at 990,000 tonnes, up from 810,000 tonnes a year earlier," he said.
Vietnam produces the quality Robusta coffee traded in London. On the Liffe in London, Robusta coffee for delivery in January was worth 1,428 dollars per tonne around 1600 GMT Friday, compared with 1,488 dollars a week ago.
On the New York Board of Trade, the price of Arabica for March delivery hit 120.15 cents per pound on Friday, compared with 117.95 cents at the close on November 17.
The New York Board of Trade (NYBoT) was closed Thursday and Friday for the Thanksgiving holiday. The March contract closed Wednesday at 1,495 dollars per tonne, down from 1,500 dollars Friday.
In Tokyo, rubber for delivery in March retreated Friday to 182.70 yens per kilogram, its lowest this year. The TOCOM, the futures market in Tokyo, the price for delivery in March was at 184.80 yens per kilogram on Friday, compared with 196.80 yen a week ago.
In Singapore, rubber contracts for March dropped to 152 US cents per kilogram on Friday, from 163.50 cents a week earlier.
He did not expect demand for corn and soy bean to weaken as the United States accounts a large portion of world supply. "For wheat it's different, because France, Russia, Canada, India have good supplies," he added. "Every month of the year with the exception of February there's a major world supplier harvesting wheat."
On the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT), which closed for the Thanksgiving holiday but reopened briefly on Friday, December wheat contracts traded at 4.92 dollars the bushel at 1600 GMT, against 4.69 dollars a week ago.
The December contract for corn traded at 3.66 dollars, compared with 3.48 dollars a week ago in Chicago, and soy beans for January delivery stood at 6.79 dollars, up from 6.54 dollars. On the Liffe, the price of a tonne of wheat for January delivery traded at 97.75 pounds, compared with 97.0 pounds a week ago.
The Eastern index closed Thursday at 8.26 Australian dollars per kilogram, down from 8.44 dollars the previous week. In Britain, the Wooltops index traded at 455 pence Thursday, the same as a week earlier.

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