The Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) is most likely to review its decision of tendering en bloc resignations from the National Assembly following its top brass failure to evolve consensus.
The MMA continuing part of the system is exceedingly significant in many ways and the most important is that it suits both the government and the Opposition. So, it could be like a win-win preposition for both sides.
There is also a remote possibility of emergence of a forward bloc in the MMA with Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman barring his MNAs from resigning while those of Qazi Hussain Ahmed making an exit from the assemblies.
Needless to say, if this happens, it will dent the MMA and even could split it into two factions, dampening its chances of repeating the 2002 election performance in the polls next year. In their Monday meeting in London, exiled leaders, Nawaz Sharif and Benazir Bhutto, stand convinced that the time is not ripe for quitting the assembly. Obviously, this will add to the pressure on the MMA leadership to reconsider and the option is likely to be fizzled out.
On his part, President General Pervez Musharraf has not made a clear comment on the religious alliance's line of action, preferring to adopt a wait-and-see strategy. Of course, he will like the MMA to stay as its exit can spell turmoil.
However, the tone and tenor of MMA President Qazi Hussain Ahmed is stern and clear. He wants what he calls the 'rubber stamp' assembly to be dissolved after their resignations.
He strongly believes that their legislators resignations will increase a countrywide political movement, forcing the rulers to quit and let the interim set-up conduct polls under a neutral election commission.
The decision, political experts believed, to quit the assembly could work as a double-edged sword: it could considerably harm MMA's political future and also has the potential to make it a potential candidate for the future set-up. Qazi Hussain Ahmed has not been able to take a categorical assurance from Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman during their private contacts on saying goodbye to the assembly, the sources said.
MMA Secretary-General Maulana Fazl-ur-Rehman appears convinced on PPP Chairperson Benazir Bhutto's advice not to resign at this juncture. A one-on-one or Supreme Council meeting is on the cards prior to their participation in the National Assembly session, insiders told Business Recorder.
Even prior to that, both Fazl and Qazi could call special meetings of their respective parties' central Shoora to debate the issue threadbare. Qazi is not prepared to even think of reviewing the decision, but Fazl has other ideas. He wants the MMA chief to show flexibility, which he has been showing on numerous occasions earlier, on supporting 17th amendment.
Interestingly, three MNAs, one each from JI, JUI(F), and Jamiat Ulema Pakistan (Noorani) have resigned from the assembly membership after the lower house of the parliament passed the Women Protection Bill. Scores of Jamaat lawmakers, willing to follow the suit, have been asked by Qazi to wait till the assembly meets. However, the issue is not as simple as it looks.
Political lobbying is likely to increase manifold in the coming days by the government and the Opposition, impressing upon Qazi to shelve resignation decision. Playing smart, the government has already delayed the first session of the assembly's new parliamentary year by at least one month. Surely, the MMA will have ample time to study the pros and cons of its earlier decision.