Eurozone indicators to show service sector stabilisation

04 Dec, 2006

Economic indicators for the eurozone to be released this week should show the outlook for the services sector stabilising after its steady decline since June, economists forecast.
On Tuesday, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the services sector in November is expected to edge up slightly, after having fallen steadily since June.
Economists forecast a rise to 56.6 from 56.5 in October. "That would be consistent with continued firm expansion in services output and, along with the resilience evident in the manufacturing PMI, should mean that GDP (gross domestic product) growth is sustaining its above-trend pace through the fourth quarter," Credit Suisse economists said.
Retail sales in the eurozone are forecast to post a reversal of September's decline in October, rising by 0.1 percent month-on-month. Economists are predicting a 1.1-percent increase from a year earlier.
"We only expect a moderate rebound, based on country evidence available so far and the eurozone retail sales purchasing managers' index," HSBC economists said.
Further upstream in the production pipeline, producer prices are forecast to show little change in October from November on Monday, with lower oil prices offset by higher commodity prices.
Economists see a modest month-on-month rise of 0.1 percent and an increase of 4.1 percent from a year earlier. "National data have come in slightly above expectations, suggesting the positive impact from lower oil prices might have been lower than assumed," HSBC economists said.
In Germany, the biggest eurozone economy, the services PMI is seen rising to 54.2 in November following an unexpected drop to 54.0 in October.
In France, the index is forecast to increase to 61.2 in November after disappointing market expectations by falling to 61.0 in October.
The Italian index is expected to ease further in November to 54.0 after decreasing to 54.1 in October.
Meanwhile, data on German industrial output Friday is expected to show an increase of 0.5 percent in October from September and to be up by 5.5 percent on a 12-month basis. "German industrial production is likely to be solid, reversing the September drop," Credit Suisse economists said.
In Britain, the coming week is tipped to call into question some of the rosier predictions for economic growth over the fourth quarter, though Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown's pre-budget report on Wednesday is expected to dominate.
While service sector growth is expected to continue apace, the retail sector is seen struggling in the run up to the crucial Christmas sales season.
On Tuesday, figures from The British Retail Consortium's (BRC) snapshot of the retail sector are seen easing back in November. The like-for-like measure, which strips out changes in floorspace, is expected to show growth of 1.0 percent, down from 2.6 percent in October.
The equivalent survey from the Confederation of British Industry showed volume of sales at an eight-month low in November. The BRC survey is expected to show the impact of the heavy discounting on the high street as it measures the value of sales.
The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply's services sector index is seen moderating to 58.5 in November from the two-and-a-half-year high of 59.3 in October.
"We think that this month is likely to see some modest retracement, but that the PMI should remain in very firm territory," David Page at Investec said.
The highlight of the week, Chancellor Gordon Brown's 10th pre-budget speech and probably his last, is expected to include some green measures, modest upgrades to economic growth and borrowing requirements.
On Thursday, The Bank of England is expected to leave its leading interest rate unchanged at 5.00 percent. All 29 economists polled by the financial news service AFX News believed the Monetary Policy Committee would leave the key repo rate at the five-year high it was raised to in early November.

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