The concept clearance by the Central Development Working Party (CDWP) of Diamer-Bhasha, Kalabagh and Akhori dams marks a major step towards the implementation of these mega projects, because it fulfils an important precondition for seeking funding from international donor agencies.
According to a Recorder Report, the projects will be presented to Ecnec along with the report of the committee on dams, some time next month. The list of the hydro projects recommended to Ecnec for approval includes Diamer-Bhasha Dam (Rs 390709 million), Kalabagh Dam (Rs 370502 million) and Akhori Dam (Rs 266140 million).
The CDWP meeting has, however, approved an allocation of Rs 1.677 billion, including a foreign exchange component of Rs 98 million, for the preparation of a detailed engineering design as well as tender documents for Bhasha dam, which has already been inaugurated under the "Water Vision 2016" strategy. Bhasha can thus be given priority over the other dams that are supposed to be completed by the year 2016.
The Water and Power Ministry had put the estimated cost of the three projects at Rs 1.027 trillion, including a foreign exchange component of Rs 433 billion ($7.22 billion). The cost of Diamer-Bhasha, Kalabagh and Akhori dams has been estimated at $6.51 billion, $6.2 billion and $4.44 billion respectively.
Despite the intense media hype over Wapda's Water Vision 2025, the work on these projects has been painfully slow, with some of the deadlines having already passed. For instance, the completion of the Rs 12.8 billion Gomal Zam Dam, which was originally scheduled to be completed by June 2006, is nowhere in sight. Similarly, work on the Rs 64 billion Mangla Dam raising project remains incomplete. Under Wapda's Vision 2025, the country has to construct storage capacity of 65 MAF.
Can we meet this target at the present pace of project implementation? Obviously, things need to be speeded up. Meanwhile, the 25-year Energy Security Plan approved by the President in March last year, aims at increasing Pakistan's power generation capacity to 162,590 megawatts from the present capacity of 19,540 megawatts. Wapda's Vision projects an addition of 27,000 megawatts by the year 2025.
This means that a minimum of 27,000 to 30,000 megawatts will have to be added to the country's aggregate power generation capacity by the year 2025. However, Kalabagh dam can at best provide only 3,600 megawatts of power by the year 2016, at the earliest.
Incidentally, all the four federating units hold different positions on the controversial dam. While the dam has a high benefit-cost ratio for Punjab, for the NWFP the cost seems to outweigh the benefit. Again, unlike the Punjab, which gets considerable rainfall during the monsoons, Sindh is a parched land receiving less than an average of five inches (127 mm) of rainfall a year. Further, while Punjab has a large reservoir of sweet water under its soil from which 350,000 tubewells draw as much as 40 MAF every year, the subsoil water in most of Sindh is as saline as the seawater.
Besides, Sindh's case on Kalabagh is that there is just not enough water in the Indus River system to justify the construction of another storage dam on the Indus. If constructed, the storage will prove harmful to Sindh's economy and ecology, argue the Sindhi nationalists. That is why saner elements have been stressing the need for building nation-wide consensus on the issue through compromise and conciliation.
The detailed feasibility study of Diamer-Bhasha dam was completed in November 2004. Experts believe that Bhasha, being upstream, will not only slow down the process of silting at Tarbela and will add 30 to 40 years to its life, it will also enable the dam to produce another 1,200 megawatts of electricity.
Incidentally, Pakistan has a total hydroelectric potential of 50,000 megawatts, while only 6,500 megawatts are being obtained at present, thanks largely to our propensity to seek more expensive short-cuts like the thermal option etc. It is hoped the government will speed up the implementation of its water and power policies, so as to make up for the precious time the country has already lost.