European gold lower

05 Dec, 2006

Gold erased overnight gains to fall on Monday and silver traded off six-month highs, but analysts said the piling up of weaker US economic data suggested the metals could soon go higher.
"Previously you could say only a few sectors like the US housing market had got problems, but now it's the manufacturing sector that has contracted in November," said Michael Widmer, analyst at Calyon Corporate and Investment Bank.
"That highlights the problems that you are having at the moment in the United States."
Spot gold hit a high of $647.70 an ounce in Asia and was at $643.50/644.25 by 1516 GMT, versus $645.20/646.20 in New York late on Friday.
The dollar slumped on Friday after the Institute for Supply Management's survey of national manufacturing showed a contraction in the factory sector for the first time in more than three years.
But the US currency rebounded from an earlier 20-month low against the euro and a basket of currencies as investors locked in profits after shaving more than 3 percent off its value in less than two weeks. Gold often moves in the opposite direction of the dollar.
"At the moment it looks like the metal is in an upward trend, with support sitting at present at $639," said Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach, head of precious metals marketing at Germany's Heraeus.
"Should the euro/dollar rate and the oil price peak at some stage, we wouldn't rule out that the yellow metal tests the lower end of the range. Despite this overhanging threat, the picture remains, in our view, healthy and any bigger fall could prove to be a good buying opportunity," he wrote in a report.
"From here we think gold and the other precious metals will continue to move in line with the dollar although with little sign of aggressive investor additions, increases will be limited," said John Reade, analyst at UBS Investment Bank.
Silver matched Friday's six-month high of $14.05 an ounce and was last quoted at $13.97/14.04, against New York's $13.98/14.05 an ounce.
Silver spiked to a 25-year high of $15.17 an ounce in May, a jump of 72 percent from the start of 2006, as speculators poured money in anticipation that an ETF, called iShares Silver Trust, would boost demand and widen the market deficit.
Platinum rose to $1,158/1,168 from $1,153/1,168 an ounce in the US market, but remained well below a record-high of $1,395 yen hit in late November.
Palladium eased to $326/330 an ounce from $328/333.

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