Corn futures at the Chicago Board of Trade closed mixed on Monday in a volatile weather market with nearby May swinging in a nearly 25-cent-per-bushel price range, traders said.
Corn rallied early on cold and wet weather in the Midwest that threatened to slow corn seedings, but traders said the market already had rallied roughly 40 cents per bushel from last week's low to the high early on Monday in anticipation of less-than-ideal corn planting weather. The rally left the market vulnerable to profit-taking and extreme volatility, they said.
"We came in this morning ready to regenerate a bull market, but after the early buying eroded there was no follow-through," said Shawn McCambridge, analyst for Prudential Financial.
CBOT corn closed 2-3/4 cents per bushel lower to 2 higher, with May down 2-1/2 at $3.63-1/2 per bushel. New-crop December was down 1/4 at $3.86-1/2. Active rolling out of the May contract also was noted and the corn market likely was pressured by a sharp drop of roughly $2.50 per barrel in crude oil.
Volume was large estimated at 316,764 futures and 48,120 options. The bulk of the futures volume was made in spreads. Traders and analysts early on Monday had cited the frigid temperatures in the Midwest and outlooks for continued wet and cold weather as catalysts for a strong surge in corn futures prices.
But "there is still time to plant the corn crop, and when it does get planted there will be ample soil moisture. There is still time for them to plant up to 90 million acres," McCambridge said.
DTN Meteorlogix weather on Monday said very cold and wet weather in the US Midwest was delaying corn planting and wet weather is expected to continue over the next week to 10 days. US farmers were expected to plant the most corn acreage since 1944 to take advantage of the highest corn prices in a decade, spurred by demand for corn to feed the ethanol industry. The demand for corn remains strong in other regions of the globe, another factor that traders continued to cite as bullish for corn.
Officials in Beijing on Monday said China expects its corn supply to remain tight this year, and the country is keen to raise domestic production to avoid heavy imports. South Korean importers may buy food-grade corn and wheat this week, but other Asian buyers are likely to slow down after their recent purchases, trade sources in Seoul said on Monday. The May corn futures contract is facing key resistance at its 100-day moving average of $3.98-1/4, and the nine-day relative strength index is at 35.
Friday's CFTC commitments of traders report for futures and options combined showed that as of last Tuesday large speculators were long 259,327 lots, down 64,634 from the previous week, and short 68,267, up 7,135 lots. Index funds were long 362,061, down 17,802 lots, and short 15,485, up 3,564 lots. Oat futures closed unchanged to 2 cents per bushel higher, with May up 1-1/2 at $2.78 per bushel. Oat volume was moderate estimated at 1,419 futures and 33 options.