Morocco, the biggest state importer of wheat in North Africa, expects that drought will cut this season's harvest to less than half the 9.3 million tonnes harvested a year earlier, the agriculture minister said.
As a result, cereal imports may rise sharply to 3-4 million tonnes for the 2007/08 period, Mohand Laenser told Reuters in an interview. The drought prompted the government to subsidise imports to help cattle breeders cope with the impact of dry weather.
The government also will finance land works schemes in drought-stricken regions to give jobs and income for more than 700,000 farmers between May and September, Laenser said. "We do not have exact estimates of the crop losses now but early indications point to a harvest of 30-40 million quintals (3-4 million tonnes) this season," he added.
"We will have more precise estimates by the end of April," he added, describing the expected harvest as very modest because of the rain shortfall. Morocco, where harvests swing sharply because of cyclical drought, collected 9.3 million tonnes of cereals in the 2005-2006 period - the highest level in 10 years - according to official figures.
Experts say Morocco's several provinces sowed in wheat and barley received 50 percent less rainfall than normal between October and February, with some areas like Chaouia hit hard by the drought during the crucial plant development period. Chaouia, one of Morocco's main bread baskets, streches south from Casablanca over the central provinces of Settat, Benslimane and Khouribga.
"The rainfall deficit was severe in the regions south of Casablanca until Agadir and further in the south as well as the Oriental eastern regions. The situation in regions north of Casablanca is better," Laenser said.
High rainfall between March and early April failed to rescue most of the parched wheat, corn and barley but was good for citrus fruit and market gardening cultures, Morocco's key farm exports, and refilled water reservoirs, he added.
"Morocco is an importer of cereals even with bumper crops. It is obvious that imports would be higher as a result of the expected lower crop for 2006/2007," he said.
Laenser estimated the cereals imports for 2007-2008 in the range of "30 million-40 million quintals". He gave no comparative figures. "Cereals imports had been between 50 million quintals and 60 million quintals in some years in the past when severe drought slashed harvests to as low as 20 million quintals," he added.
"There would be no shortage of wheat in the market. We are ready to further lower the tariffs if we need to. But we cannot allow imported wheat prices to be below prices of local wheat," he added.
In January, the government scrapped value-added tax and customs duties on barley and corn imports in a bid to help cattle farmers. The authorities see the 25 million head of livestock as a key agricultural sector because they provide incomes for most of 1.5 million farmers and their 4.5 million family members.
Agriculture, including livestock, accounts for between 17 and 20 percent of Morocco's Gross Domestic Product, depending on harvest outcomes, and provides more than 40 percent of jobs, mostly for rural population.
Laenser said the government will soon start subsidising feed barley imports as part of an 815 million dirhams ($98.68 million) package of measures to expand support for breeders. "The subsidy will involve more than 5 million quintals of barley at an initial stage and the subsidies would account for more than 25 percent of the real prices," he said, adding that the authorities are paying for the transport of barley and water as well free medical care for animals.