Dollar holds post-Fed gains

11 May, 2007

The dollar was steady against the yen and euro on Thursday, holding on to gains made after the Federal Reserve kept benchmark US interest rates steady and said its main worry was that inflation would fail to moderate.
While the Fed's statement after its meeting on Wednesday was mostly in line with expectations, it doused speculation that the central bank might cut interest rates more than once this year.
"The dollar rose because there had been some speculation that the statement might be a bit more cautious about the economic outlook," said Tomoko Fujii, a senior economist and strategist at Bank of America. The Fed kept the benchmark federal funds rate at 5.25 percent but said in its statement that core inflation remained somewhat elevated.
Bank of America's Fujii said the Fed will likely keep rates on hold for a while and only lower them late in the year, adding that her bank expects one rate cut toward the year-end. After the US central bank announcement, interest rate futures pared back the perceived chances of a Fed rate cut to a single 25 basis-point cut in the fourth quarter.
The dollar stood at 120.03 yen as, little changed from late US trading on Wednesday and down from a session high of 120.24 yen. The US currency hit a two-month high of 120.47 yen hit last week.
The euro was steady at $1.3534, still stuck near Wednesday's session low of about $1.3520. The Australian and New Zealand dollars jumped on surprisingly strong jobs data that underscored the sturdiness of the two countries' economies, where interest rates are already among the highest of industrialised economies.
The Australian dollar rallied nearly 0.5 percent on the day to $0.8318 on data showing a jump in employment in April and a drop in the jobless rate to a 32-year low, pushing back towards a 17-year high if $0.8390 reached last month.
The New Zealand dollar was up slightly at $0.7338, pulling back from a high of $0.7360 struck after data showed that employment in New Zealand grew at its fastest pace in two and a half years in the first quarter.
Investors' focus now shifts to rate decisions on Thursday by the Bank of England, which is seen raising rates to 5.5 percent, and the European Central Bank, which is seen holding rates at 3.75 percent while signalling a hike in June.
Market players already expect ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet to point to a June rate rise in his post-meeting remarks, and the key will be whether he provides any hints on the possibility of further rate increases after that.
The euro could come under some profit-taking pressure if Trichet offers no hints on what the ECB might do after June, said Bank of America's Fujii. The BoE's rate decision could give a lift to sterling, market players said.
"There has been some talk about a 50 basis point BoE rate rise," said a Japanese trust bank trader, adding that sterling was likely to get a boost if that turned out to be the case. Sterling stood at $1.9941, steady from late New York and below the 26-year peak of $2.0134 struck on April 18.
The yen showed little reaction to comments by Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui, who reiterated before a parliamentary committee that the central bank will guide monetary policy gradually based on the economy and prices, while carefully monitoring risk factors. Fukui later said in a speech that there were bigger risks from not raising rates as long as the economy is performing in line with the central bank's outlook.

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