As an American flotilla comprising two aircraft carriers and seven other ships sails into the Gulf, the United Nations nuclear watchdog, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), has released a report accusing Iran of accelerating its uranium enrichment programme.
The two developments may not be inter-related; while the first could be an exercise in gun-boat diplomacy to bolster US position as it sits with Iran in Baghdad to discuss ways of stabilising Iraq, the second appears to be an obvious sequel of the Agency report. Released early last week the report says that Iran has accelerated its uranium enrichment programme in clear violation of UN demand. Muhammad AlBaradei, the director of the IAEA, has interpreted the report as a message that Iran has acquired technical competence to manufacture nuclear warheads in three to eight years, though that does not automatically mean that Iran is going for nuclear weapons.
But it was AlBaradei's manner of saying this that provoked an angry reaction from Americans and some of their allies. Speaking to reporters at a conference on disarmament in Luxembourg he had noted that it was now too late to expect Iran to scrap its enrichment programme. "I believe the (UN) demand has been superseded by events. The important thing is now to concentrate on that Iran does not take it to industrial scale", he said and then conceded that Iran could keep some elements of its enrichment programme. He also warned Iran's impetuous adversaries against "bombing the way to security".
As expected, that earned AlBaradei tough reaction from the West. Pat came President Bush's warning that the United States and its European allies would seek to "strengthen our sanctions regime". US Under-secretary Nicholas Burn's anger was more pointed: "Iran is once again thumbing its nose at the international community". This 'international community', not prepared to give Tehran any quarter as it demands Iranians' full compliance of UN resolutions by completely shutting down its nuclear programme, now has France among those leading the charge.
The new French Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner, clearly departing from the heretofore French policy of seeking diplomatic solution to the nuclear stand-off between the US and Iran, has pledged his country's support for "rapid adoption of new sanctions". Will Russia and China too go for the "third package" of sanctions? President Bush says he would work to enlist their support. Iran's President Ahmedinejad says nothing doing; no retreat, even by a single step. "If we stop for a while, they (Iran's enemies) will have achieved their goal".
Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) that entitles it to acquire nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. Iran says it is doing exactly the same, but the United States and its allies in Europe want Tehran to abandon its nuclear programme. What moral high ground Iran's detractors stand on is the biggest enigma of the present time. The United States, Britain, France, Russia, China and many others who vote against the Iran's right to run its nuclear programme are themselves nuclear-weapon states. Between them they have some 17,000 nuclear weapons and some of them are right now busy enhancing the kill potential of these weapons.
One of them, the United States, had not hesitated in using these weapons when it bombed Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. In stark violation of the NPT, they will not mind helping their non-signatory friends like India to acquire sophisticated nuclear technology. Obviously, Iran is not convinced of the logic advanced by the United States and its allies to justify their demand that Iran should wind up its nuclear programme. Iranian leadership appears determined to defend its nuclear programme, and we who live in this region have no doubt that it will - whatever the cost in terms of regional stability.