US economy shows signs of vigour

04 Jun, 2007

The latest economic data point to an acceleration in the US economy after the weakest growth in over four years, but some analysts say a full recovery is not yet in sight.
Friday's Labour Department report showing a surprise gain of 157,000 jobs in May along with other robust data appeared to validate the view of the Federal Reserve that the world's biggest economy will gather steam over 2007, with strong consumer spending offsetting a slump in housing.
If that view proves correct, the sluggish 0.6 percent growth pace in gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter - the worst since the fourth quarter of 2002 - would represent a low point from which a rebound has already begun.
The report on payrolls growth, which showed the unemployment rate steady at 4.5 percent, "adds to the evidence that the economy is bouncing back in the second quarter," said economist Nigel Gault at research firm Global Insight.
Gault said he sees economic growth in the range of 2.5 to 3.0 percent in the second quarter after the "anemic" pace of the first quarter.
Data show resurgent activity in other segments of the economy as well. A survey by the Institute of Supply Management showed a rise in factory activity, with the national manufacturing index rising to 55 percent, well above the 50 percent reading signifying expansion.
Consumer spending - the main driver of economic activity - rose 0.5 percent in April, according to a separate Commerce Department report Friday.
Stephen Gallagher, an economist at Societe Generale in New York, said he has now scrapped his prediction that the Fed would cut rates to stimulate flagging growth.

Read Comments