Soybean futures at the Chicago Board of Trade ended firm on Thursday, supported by concerns that dry weather in the eastern Midwest was stressing young crops and slowing soybean emergence, traders said. The rally in wheat was also supportive.
Forecasts indicated little relief in sight from the dryness in eastern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio for at least a week. Models disagreed about next six-to-10-day forecast, prompting traders to add weather premium into soybean and corn prices early in the session.
As the session progressed, soybeans lost steam as did corn and wheat. By far the most volatile CBOT market this week has been wheat, reaching an 11-year high and surpassing $6.
"If you're a bull you like the wheat story because of its limited production prospects. But it's hard to stomach buying wheat this high, so what speculators tend to do is buy a proxy that seems less overboard. Soybeans are picking up some of that interest," said Gavin Maguire, analyst with Iowa Grain.
It is also dry in the eastern US Midwest, raising concerns about stress to young soybean plants, and the prospect for a "steep drop in acreage and ending stocks going forward will make it an increasingly attractive market," Maguire added, referring to soybeans.
July soybeans closed 1-3/4 cents higher at $8.27-1/2 per bushel, after reaching a high of $8.37-3/4. The back months through January 2008 settled 3/4 cent to 1-3/4 cents higher.
Soyoil was also strong, rebounding from Wednesday's sell-off and supported by the strength in crude oil and a firm close in Malaysian palm oil futures. July soyoil closed 0.29 cent higher at 35.16 cents per lb, with the deferred months up 0.24 to 0.30 cent.
Soymeal was supported by the strength in the other CBOT markets but was the weakest of the complex due to oil/meal spreading. Meal closed 40 cents higher to $1.50 lower, with July meal up 40 cents at $230.40. Commodity funds bought 3,000 soybean futures, 4,000 soyoil and were even in soymeal, traders said.
Weekly export sales statistics and an industry group's monthly crush data released before the open came in near expectations for soybeans, providing little market direction. The National Oilseed Processors Association said members crushed 143.4 million bushels of soybeans in May, which was within estimates for 142.5 million to 146 million.
The US Agriculture Department said last week's soybean export sales were 221,700 tonnes (all old crop), compared with estimates for 150,000 to 250,000 tonnes. US soymeal export sales were 78,300 tonnes (68,700 tonnes old-crop) last week, within estimates for 50,000 to 125,000 tonnes.
USDA reported last week's soybean oil export sales at 21,300 tonnes (all old crop), bigger than expected as estimates ranged from nil to 10,000 tonnes. NOPA's crush data showed US soyoil stocks growing to 2.924 billion lbs in May from 2.902 billion in April. US spot soybean basis bids held weak amid ample nearby supplies and light export demand, cash dealers said.