Trade powers launched an eleventh hour effort to rescue global trade talks on Tuesday and the United States said it was hopeful of progress. "Everyone seems focused, which is a good sign," said Sean Spicer, a spokesman for US Trade Representative Susan Schwab.
Schwab joined counterparts from the European Union, Brazil and India to begin five days of closed-door talks on the Doha round of free trade negotiations in Germany. Representatives of Japan and Australia are due to join them on Saturday.
The fate of the Doha round could depend on whether the so-called G4 group can resolve differences this week on agriculture that have haunted the talks since they were launched more than five years ago in the capital of Qatar. WTO boss Pascal Lamy has warned that without a breakthrough very soon, the round could be put on hold for several years.
Negotiators are also set to discuss two other pillars of the talks - services and non-agricultural market access (NAMA), or manufactured goods - which have received less attention due to the insistence of developing countries that a deal to slash rich country farm subsidies and tariffs comes first. "We are looking forward to drilling down on NAMA and services," US spokesman Spicer said.
The ministers are meeting in Potsdam, near Berlin, at the Schloss Cecilienhof palace, where allied leaders plotted Europe's future after World War Two. Washington has demanded that any deal that significantly cuts US farm subsidies must open new export markets around the world in agriculture, manufacturing and services.
Development groups fear the pressure to reach a deal after more than five years of talks could lead to a bad result. "Poor countries badly need fairer trade rules and an end to trade-distorting subsidies if they are to reduce poverty," said Marita Hutjes, acting head of Oxfam's Make Trade Fair campaign. "What they don't need is a deal done at any cost, that exposes them to further dumping, and undermines future development prospects."
Schwab told Reuters last week the G4 could make dramatic progress towards a deal the entire 150-country WTO could support but that would require progress on more than just agriculture. A private sector US farm policy analyst said preparatory talks among G4 trade officials boosted the chances of success this week.
"It's definitely not a sure bet, but I think they have a pretty good set-up for the meeting," the analyst said. "But, they also have to sell any package...to the broader membership and figure out a way of doing that without ticking people off. An agreement would be a big step forward, but it certainly wouldn't be anywhere close to a final deal."
Campaign group Action Aid said a majority of negotiators from poor countries believe the WTO round, called the Doha Development Agenda, had failed in its aim of fighting poverty. Action Aid surveyed 40 negotiators from African, Caribbean and Asian countries, of whom 28 said no when asked whether the development element of the round was being fulfilled, nine said it was too early to tell and three answered yes.