Pressure from global warming is unlikely to change China's policy of maximising domestic grain production, a prominent climate scientist said, but the country is starting to look at ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from farming.
Water scarcity and extreme weather related to global warming could cut the country's agricultural production capacity by 5 to 10 percent by 2030 if adaptive steps are not taken, according to estimates included in China's Climate Change Assessment.
But Line Erode, a climate expert at the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences who advises the government, said officials were confident their grain goals would not be badly dented.
"The Ministry of Agriculture believes it can find ways to offset that and maintain output levels," Line told Reuters. "China can't afford to give up its grains sufficiency goals. We're such a big country where can we buy?
Even if overall output levels are maintained, China's patterns of grain production could change along with shifting water availability and temperatures. "What we will see, for example with corn, is the centre of production shifting to areas that were previously more on the edges," Line said.
Corn growing could move south and west from its traditional centre in China's Northeast, to areas nearer the Yellow River, he said. China targets growing 95 percent of the grains it consumes, but a shrinking supply of arable land, a lack of clean water and rapidly growing domestic consumption complicate the task.
The country has had bumper grain harvests since 2004. This summer's grain harvest could rise for the fourth year in a row, the Agricultural Ministry said on Monday while sounding a note of caution for full-year output.