Drought in Russia may cut grain exports to 8-10 million tonnes in the 2007/08 crop year from around 13 million in the current 2006/07 year, Agriculture Minister Alexei Gordeyev said on Tuesday. "We believe that we may export up 10 million tonnes or, more accurately, between 8 and 10 million tonnes, mostly wheat," Gordeyev told a news conference.
He added that growing pig and poultry numbers will require more feed grain, essentially feed barley for domestic consumption, and therefore the share of wheat, which this year accounts for 75-80 percent in exports, is likely to rise.
Gordeyev said there was no plan to restrict grain exports, and the government could sell up to 1.5 million tonnes of feed grain from its stocks if domestic prices rose too high.
Leading Russian agricultural analysts SovEcon said that, in fact, Russia could export more grain in 2007/08 - 10.7 million tonnes of wheat and 1.2 million tonnes of barley. "With falling Ukrainian exports, demand for Russian grain will rise and traditional buyers in northern Africa will prefer Russian grain to expensive shipments from the United States," SovEcon's CEO Andrei Sizov Sr. told Reuters.
Gordeyev said he would soon meet representatives from Ukraine, which has been badly hit by drought, to co-ordinate export policy of the two major Black Sea grain shippers.
Russia's grain marketing year runs from July 1. Gordeyev reiterated that the country expects to harvest 76 million tonnes this year, down from 78.4 million last year. SovEcon's Sizov said he estimated the crop this year to be in the range of 75-78 million tonnes.
"But this is not going to be as critical as in 1998," Gordeyev said. In 1998, Russia harvested a meagre 47.8 million tonnes after a severe draught. He added he expected good grain crop in the Asian part of the country.
He said the harvest this year would be greater than in 2006, when the country reaped 45 million tonnes of the cereal. But he did not provide an exact estimate.
He said the total grain harvesting area was expected to be around 43 million hectares this year, close to last year's acreage. Gordeyev said the area sown with maize, rapeseed and soybeans was higher this year while the area sown with sunflowers was reduced.
The maize crop this year may reach a record 5 million tonnes, up from 3.7 million tonnes in 2006, soybeans output may be around 1 million tonnes, up from 522,100 tonnes last year, and rapeseed output may exceed 1 million tonnes, compared to 740,000 tonnes last year, Gordeyev said.
He did not give an estimate for this year's sunseed production. Analysts have said the sunseed crop this year could be 5.2-6.0 million tonnes compared with 6.7 million in 2006. Gordeyev said the area sown with sugar beets this year was around 1 million hectares, close to last year's.