Thailand's Election Commission (EC) said on Wednesday it may bring forward a promised December general election to November 25 if a post-coup constitution is approved quickly. Commission officials have said they would like to see a referendum on the constitution held on August 19.
However, it remains a distinct possibility that the charter being drawn up to replace the 1997 "People's Constitution" torn up in last September's military coup will not get through the plebiscite.
Ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra and his disbanded Thai Rak Thai party are expected to campaign vigorously against it. They are likely to be joined by a variety of groups, ranging from those who want Buddhism, the faith of 90 percent, to become the state religion to human rights campaigners who say some clauses in the new charter are affronts to democracy and freedom.
Prime Minister Surayud Chulanont, appointed by the army after the coup, said an early referendum and election were vital to defusing political tensions and restoring investor confidence.
"We will hold the election as soon as possible to lay the groundwork for the future," he told Japanese businessmen in Bangkok. "Now is a crucial turning point for the people. We are confident that Thailand can return to the forefront of democracy in Asia again," Surayud said.
The stock market rose more than one percent after the EC's comments, reflecting investor belief that a general election is likely to clear the political air and lift steadily sagging consumer confidence. "The sooner the election is held, the faster confidence will come back," Thanachart Securities analyst Saengtham Jaranachaikul said.
Investors appeared to shrug off Thaksin's possible return from exile after anti-corruption investigators said on Tuesday he must face charges of concealing assets by June 29.
Speculation about his imminent return a week ago knocked more than two percent off the stock index as investors feared it would embolden anti-coup street protesters and increase the chance of serious political unrest. Surayud has said Thaksin's safety would be assured, although it remains far from clear if the military will allow him back.