Rains have been causing concern in the consumer caucus which may delay supplies profiting the ginners who expect prices to go up. No ill affect on the cotton crop has been reported, so far. The spot rate was unchanged at Rs 2600 until Thursday.
WORLD SCENARIO:
Futures tasted higher as players expected July to touch 60 cent mark with weekly export sales and planting acreage report would turn by turn. The Monday session was down at 54.75 cents while October was down 57.67 cents a pound. The opening session was down as the market consolidated near its highs and players engaged in switch trade. The July deliveries start next week.
The second days trading closed mixed as everybody looked for correction. The traders said it is bull market and a day of rest or two is nothing surprising. China entry any day is expected with great hope. Analysts said that once deliveries in July are under way, they market will turn its focus on annual planting acreage report. The report is expected on June 29, 2007.
On Wednesday, futures soared to a three-month high. Traders said looking toward the weakly export sales report from brokers expected Total US cotton sales in the range of 100,000 to Rs 250,000 while shipments were seen at 400,000 to 500,000 RBs more or less around the previous week's.
On Thursday for the second time cotton futures depicted mixed trend. The traders observed that renewed speculative funds buying erasing switch losses from an early down turn, powering the spot contract to a three-and a half- month high. The market players were sort of concerned whether unexpected rally is being observed due to buying from top consumers China.
Meanwhile weakly export sales amounted to 229,000 RBs fromm previous 135,000 RBs while shipments were seen at 452,000 RBs from previous 451,600 RBs.
On Friday the erratic cotton futures on the weekend session were lower owing to speculative sales but players were optimistic that futures would soon go higher. However July contract fell by 0.61 cents to 55.89 and October was down 0.70 cents to 95.30 cents a pound.
LOCAL MARKET:
Rains in Punjab raised hope of ginners to see prices go up, but consumers resisted buying as a result a few bales were seen changing hand at Rs 2525 and Rs 2600 as spot rate also stuck to Rs 2600 until the end of the week.
The opening day depicted dull going as parts of cotton growing areas in Punjab witnessed rains. The ginners cherished rains will restrain normal market activity and raised chances of prices going higher.
But spinners and millers guessed the grim situation. Buyers stayed at the sidelines. Cotton trading has been showing strange going. The govt decision to restrain releasing Bt cotton has disappointed growers. They are being pressed to bring about phenomenal rise in cotton production. The second day saw buyers back to market but they lifted no more than couple of deals.
The third day was dullest with only deal seen struck even sporadic buying, according to the market operators situation had encourage ginners as they took this better one than none.
On Thursday cotton consumers just could not hold on and lifted some lots, around 4000 bales. At least one deal from mill to mill. The market report was that spinners developed apprehension about rains, which might affect the crop, other wise. The consumers are always concerned about rise in price. The system under so called WTO, which finally has been declared collapsed more consumption in Pakistan is required. America is gradually converting to other crops said to have been fetching more value.
The Friday session on the cotton market stayed lackluster as spinner were shy to buy at higher price. The ginners have been tightening their felt to take advantage of the continued rains in Punjab. Spot rate stayed put at Rs 2600.
FTA WITH GERMANY:
One can only pray Pakistani exporters get favour in every nook and corner of the world. But the repeated setbacks seen in Us and Eu (Germany is a state in European Union) and elsewhere, make one holds his nerves allowing past harrowing tales of wrong doing or otherwise such as one Jordan, which had returned landed rice on complaints that the same was notas per sample. It was long ago. Even today such shortfall is noted which however is not acceptable. The commerce minister is there.
Had been there and made efforts to convince EU to treat Pak as the Union treats other South Asian nations. It was not long before that imports from Pak were being paid no attention. The January 1, 2005 onwards sudden drop in favour to Pak textile products was painstakingly experienced. The products are good in our view, they are competitive but the importers only the other day favoured us had turned negative. It has come lately that be they importers from America or the EU or any other country besides quality and price factor prefer goods with a brand showing certain country.
The word is perhaps unknown or demands too much investment and hence the reservation. The other day the prime minister had spoken honeyed idea that strength keeps right balance between two nations. In trade we are very weak and chance. Anyway it is happy news according to PTV two investments accords were inked. It was from position of strength or weakness fact remains that Germany has honoured our approach future demands from us that we keep the delivery promise intact specification, quality and prices appealing to the buyers.
BACKING SIGNAL:
The WTO has honoured PSQCA to act as inquiry point to tackle technical barriers to ensure fault free implementation so that fellow trade partners don't have any reservation. This long awaited message was received with near green signal from US trade representative that WTO stand a chance vis a vis a deal may be during 6-4 meeting.
Good enough Pakistan can take solace in being remembered as a destination for quicker disposal of more distinctly disputes. In this WTO consider Pakistan is obliged to implement policies and take measure to ensure compliance with all WTO provision. The report further adds that the affection implementation of the agreements by all members will create an environment for free and open trade by the elimination of unnecessary trade barriers arising from misapplication of standards and technical regulation.
The report tries to impress open sleeping beauties that business community thus reaps the benefits through removal of trade barriers and opening of markets. It further impresses that exporters from WTO members countries benefits from the provision of the agreements that requires products imported from other members to be given the same treatment as given to the products of national origin.
It says, as a result of the transparency requirement of the agreements, exporters from the member countries benefits from an assured access of information on importing members technical regulation, standards and conformity assessment procedures are applied. So as not to discriminate among imported products by origin and do not treat imported products less favourably than the domestic products, and is based on scientific and technical information where relevant.
The above all important points related to trading should have come along with Morocco Declaration. The document carried by whosoever from Morocco was made a sacred file and safety kept under piles of documents. Generally less relevant people have since written or tired to inform exporters so that they never fell in the rigmarole, Pak exporters find themselves in. Now they have only people look for are in govt who almost can recommend for a package. Since something rich has come to knowledge, yhe exporters can guard against confronting pitfalls and escape further losses.
HEADLINE VIBRATES OPTIMISM:
The US trade chief eyes dramatic progress in WTO talks speaks more signalling posterity than ever. Earlier all statements from this country used to be conditional. Although collective noun has been used granting that assurance may have nod from Brazil, India and European Union but US trade representative's tone had sufficient weight.
The WTO chief EU's Pascal Lamy had always been positive because whatever reservations particularly US had should end up the "fast track" mandate to incumbent president. The latest report has no mention of Pascal Lamy displaying his attitude that he had already had expressed satisfaction and hope which in fact was hollow.
The lighter sentiment is characteristic of EU where live and let live is cardinal whereas the US had its interest uppermost without taking into account the other side will have on its interest. This love of ones interest goes beyond anybody's injury or death, the US has through decades achieved the position where from any step endangers its position is roughly signalled help yourself.
In this case headline is too optimistic about WTO deal but the fact is that the "fast track" mandate given to Bush by legislators has already become defunct. What has given so much optimism in this case to US trade minister meeting any day that either take advantage of the available opportunity or wait till eternity.
So the stake is very tricky and important trade ministers are talking about last chance in a day or two G-4 meeting. The signal is all clear that the US being blamed for parting with scarce resources does not want to hear the final crash blame. Although G-4 has the EU present their but Lamy's good name who has nursed and nurtured the WTO for years does not appear with as much optimism who by who is apparently a natural thinker.
However why to ponder and discuss in air only few days hence a history may be in making guess the D-day and promised heaven for the poor on earth.
NATIONAL SPIRIT VS EXPORT SECTORS:
Indeed exporter sectors have been faced with survival or otherwise like situation. Had they been public sector undertaking govt was bound to find some cure. But since they are ownership basis of individuals gov't is more than reluctant and has shown only step motherly sentiment.
The caption here began with national spirit while subject under discussion seemingly speaks in a different context-export sector. Outside the very relevant caucus, there are some thinkers who can't help to discuss to learn possible reason and find out solution whether in real sense solution has any sense.
Exactly the way a past experience bears much but still has no relevance and may annoy some. During President's visit some persons reached the Governor House pretty late and gate was closed with strict instruction that it will not be opened at any cost.
But a senior one had some clue. He did not disclose. Thwy were instructed to stay while he moved closer to the man sitting in a tool. At first the man-say guard or darban moved head in negative with grim face. Then some topic was discussed. Senior sathi shook hand-again and again. And then he signalled others to follow him in most disciplined manner or one may miss the President's conference. God bless and they heard president speaking about national spirit without which prosperity remains like a sweet dream and nothing.
The other day a week end edition had some very heart aching write up reminded people that national spirit is the prerequisite for the progress. Let us for a while forget national spirit concentrate on the plight f exports and businesses on seemingly on a sinking boat. Had people embraced the President's call come some thirty years back, while the govt seemed to lie as a whole in a better position export and businesses have failed contributing its fair share!
TAIL PIECE:
Elections come after every five years, but harvests of various crops don't wait for that long. Politicians wait for re-election is wrapped in five years full of uncertain upheavals. Can growers keep waiting for required amount of water, good seed, weather, drugs and field workers timely help for that long. What these lines are conveying to all concerned even a bit is as shining as the early morning clear shy sun.
The unique year has become part of history weather history would repeat, so far in this country, and where growers are concerned has never revisited. High cost of business is repeated as if it is a curse if so can any body imaging growers are not faced with high cost of doing only during 2007. How does it listen crops which this part supplied to entire subcontinent is dependent on high cost imported grains.
Trues Pakistan was deprived of built in water works through, but needs are attended on priority basic. In Pakistan even repair of a canal is subject to 4-provinces clear approval of the discredited politicians. Countries like China, India, South Korea, Singapore, etc began travel towards progress and prosperity Pakistan has not be out of nagging is faced with high cost doing business.