Last week's countrywide heavy but short-period rains and gusty winds lashed almost all cotton areas of Sindh and Punjab. This has made weather quite comfortable which otherwise was very hot and unbearable. The hot and dry winds had reduced the moisture in the land, which was well compensated by the recent rains.
Field reports indicate that these rains are considered very beneficial for cotton crop, which is in development stage. However, in early sown areas of lower Sindh and central Punjab, which is small, where crop is at maturity stage, its harvesting may be delayed by a week or so. Soon after rains, bright sunshine energises cotton plants.
This weather may last only two/three days more. Early rains mostly prove beneficial for cotton crop while late rains mostly damage cotton crop, which remains at maturity stage. No wonder, the crop may cross the target of 14.14 million 170-Kg bales to touch the record high level of 15.0 million bales.
Meteorological office has forecast for normal rains throughout the country with the exception of eastern area where rains may be more than normal. Luckily, our eastern area mostly consists of desert area bordering India where even excess rains are no problem.
Cotton sowing has been completed and the government has yet to issue details of area under cotton. Upcountry reports indicate that in central Punjab cotton has been sown on more area and in Sindh cotton sowing has been extended to coastal areas where Bt.
Seed varieties produce better results. The government's enjoinment safety agencies are reported to have refused their approval for sowing of Bt. cotton varieties on safety grounds. The concerned government agencies have already approved adoption of GM technology.
According to a foreign report, Pakistan's farmers are very keen in sowing Bt. cotton varieties for better returns, are doing it by illegally importing seeds mostly from India. Pakistan may be 10 years behind India in cotton production technologies.
India has been producing record high crop for the last three consecutive seasons producing a record high crop of 27 million bales in 2006-2007 season while Pakistan in consecutive two seasons has failed to match its best cotton production of 14.6 million bales. When China and India two top cotton producing countries having common border with Pakistan have been sowing Bt. cotton varieties for the last 6-8 years and driving most of its benefits then why Pakistan has reservations in adoption of this new technology.
Pakistan is deficient in raw cotton and is importing some 3.0 million 170-Kg bales every season while India is surplus in cotton and is exporting some 4.0 - 5.0 million bales. India has about 80 percent of its agri-land on rain waters while Pakistan has one of the best canal irrigation system covering over 80 percent agriculture area. Pakistan must go for GM technology to produce enough cotton to feed its domestic spinning industry.
In 2006-2007 season, Pakistan produced 12.4 million bales and domestic consumption is estimated around 15.5 million bales. This season, our total imports may go up to 3.0 million bales. It is very difficult for Pakistan to compete with India, China, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Sri Lanka in exports of yarn, cloth and other textile goods.
In 2006-2007, our total textile exports are estimated around 11.0 billions dollars, which would be 63.3 percent of the total exports while export for next season has been fixed at 13.0 billions dollars.
According to a report of All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (Aptma), 200 spinning units are on verge of closure if the much-needed help was not given to textile industry to stay competitive in the international market. About Rs 100 billion loans may stuck on closure of 200 mills. The report said that about 20 percent of the loans have been turned into non-performing loans because of the current crisis in textile industry.
The textile industry has been making demands for different type of concessions relaxation in some taxes to reduce high cost of production. Local lint cotton prices have firmed up on reports of delay in new crop arrivals and sympathy with high advises in New York Cotton Futures.
Total unsold stocks of raw cotton from current crop is estimated around 75,000 bales. The ginners holding cotton for sale are tight-lipped on rates. One bargain of 2,900 has been heard and the sellers want even better price although quality of lint is only so-so. Exporters have withdrawn their sale offers of new crop cotton on uncertainty and delay in availability. Local spinning mills have to lift the available cotton and higher rates because of tight supply position.