Had President General Musharraf set a trap for himself and had walked straight into it? An answer to this question could be a simple `yes' or `no' or both. But, there's no denying the fact that he's in an extremely unpleasant situation.
The carnage let loose following the storming of Lal Masjid and Jamia Hafsa, where, according to the government, a number of militants were holed up for more than a week, across NWFP and tribal areas is not the only serious challenge that is staring President in his face, a controversial peace accord with tribal militants has been scrapped by the pro-Taliban tribals, heightening fears of an insurgency in the province and the semi-autonomous areas.
Although the President had been trying to convince the West that the deal his government had signed with the tribals last September was bound to yield short and long-term dividends and that it would help wean people off from militancy, the allied forces and the Afghanistan government had doubted his wisdom and intentions from day one, saying that the tribals would never hunt down militants. Sadly, the tribals now appeared to have sold Musharraf down the river, landing him in a situation which is offering no prospects of return to normality.
Although the President was seen dealing with the events that immediately preceded the Lal Masjid operation in a manner broadly suggesting that he had taken a risk that he thought was worth taking, his latest decision to deploy extra troops to areas including Swat district of NWFP was not expected to lead to desired results.
His decision, perhaps, has contributed towards sharply heightening tensions in an already restive area where hundreds of armed tribesmen have demanded of the government to withdraw troops, fearing an army-led operation following General Musharraf's decision to crack down on extremists so that "there won't be any more Lal Masjids". Though it is a known fact that incidents of suicide bombing had been taking place in these areas before and during the Lal Masjid standoff, these had not constituted an urgent need for the deployment of extra troops soon after the Lal Masjid tragedy.
To add to Islamabad's woes, not only has the NWFP government of JUI claimed that the provincial government was not taken into confidence on the deployment of extra troops to the province's restive areas, its chief minister, Akram Durrani, has taken the stand that no operation could be launched in his province without his government's consent and approval.
In the case of tribal areas in particular, Musharraf should have ruled them with an iron rod, controlling these restive areas very strictly and even harshly. He had perhaps erred by striking a deal with them regardless of the merits of the dividends that agreement has so far yielded to the government. Now his is a case of someone who has spared the rod and spoiled the child.
Now that the President can not lower his guard or reduce his level of vigilance, he is required to come to grips with the fact that Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, particularly its JUI component, is an undisputed stakeholder in relation to law and order in NWFP and FATA. He's therefore, required to ensure that the NWFP government is taken on board on all issues concerning law and order in the province.
While fully appreciating the complexities of the Frontier politics with particular reference to Interior Minister Aftab Sherpao's and MMA's concerns for their political interests, there's no denying the fact that the NWFP government is itself a victim of fast deteriorating law and order situation in the province. It stands to make hardly any gains out of more bloodshed there, particularly in the settled districts of the province. Not only the NWFP government is to be allowed to deal with the situation in its domain freely and independently, since the law and order is essentially a provincial subject, General Musharraf must fulfil his promise that he made in his address to the nation a few days back that the provincial governments fighting terrorism would be provided with all-out support by the government and the army.
President Musharraf must realise that he desperately needs MMA or JUI support in relation to law and order in NWFP and tribal areas regardless of its chief Qazi Hussain Ahmed's decision to quit the Parliament. The president, unfortunately, doesn't have many irons in the fire as he's fast running out of options or courses of action available. The weather is terrible, but he must carry on regardless.