Former foreign secretary Najmuddin A. Shaikh sees grave civil war like situation brewing in Lebanon if the Palestinian refugee issue and rousing sectarian differences are not addressed by the international community.
He was addressing teachers and students on "The recent Lebanon-Israeli war and its impact on the region" at the Area Study Centre for Europe, University of Karachi, on Saturday.
He said this while tracing history of conflicts within Lebanon where at least 18 different religious sects live, its direct confrontation with Israel, political manoeuvring by Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the Palestinian refugees.
Shaikh said that the situation was complex and the Muslims would have to prioritise their interest. One wrong move would be complete catastrophe, he added.
He said so far the bitter conflict within the Lebanese communities had strengthened Israel and given it opportunities to hit hard local population. In his opinion, Hisbollah has lost credibility as impartial group fighting for the people of Lebanon for their collective rights. "They are now being branded as partisans and supporters of Shia majority. They are now looked upon as a Shia group," he added.
He said that Lebanon was one of the properly administered countries. The Shias, being in the majority, enjoyed less power than the minority Christians. The Sunnis, being less than the Christians in number, felt comfortable with their representation, he added.
In his opinion, the recent political development in the region and rising sectarian feelings have endangered peace in Lebanon. He said that there was little hope that the US would be of any assistance in dispute resolution in the region. "The United States of America has increased funding to support armies in Lebanon from 40 million dollars to 280 million dollars. The money would support conflict rather than peace initiatives," he opined.
He said it was said that the increased funding would be used to oust Palestinians outposts that created danger for the Israelis. "Lebanese are considering Palestinian refugees as a potential threat to their economy. They are not allowed to work, they are refused jobs and self-employment for the Palestinians is being resisted," he said.
"The process of marginalisation of this substantial refugee population, Palestinians, is a dangerous move and is bound to create boomerang effect. It will complicate the situation further.
During these days, extremists are finding shelter in Lebanon. "Unfortunately, the battle in Lebanon is now more internal and sectarian in nature rather than against the common enemy - Israel," he said. He said that on the other hand Israel was still holding Sheba farm and Lebanese prisoners. "American policy on the entire issue is pro-Israel".
Shaikh was of the view that there were less chances of reconstruction in Lebanon. The unrest in the region would bring more frustration and uneasiness for the Lebanese population and the Palestinians. This would minimise chances of making the region peaceful.
"The refugee problem would grow, Palestinians would strengthen their links with extremists and a frustrated Sunni group would be there to support the entire process." He said that Israel would be the ultimate beneficiary of the ongoing trouble in the region. The American support, in different disguises, to Israel would continue to grow.
Shaikh opined that the Muslims would have to gauge the quantum of harm their myopic vision of the worldview had caused them, and called upon them to feel the pulse of the time and act in a balanced manner. If a balance course of action was not adopted, "there is stalemate and the outlook is bleak," he said. Earlier, Naveed Ahmed, Director of the Area Study Centre for Europe, introduced the speaker.