Asian currencies: high-yielders buckle under credit fears

16 Aug, 2007

The Philippine peso, Indonesian rupiah and Singapore dollar hit multi-week lows on Wednesday as investors extended their aggressive sales of risky assets on fears US credit market woes were spreading overseas.
The high-yielding peso fell 0.8 percent to 46.27 per dollar, a five-week low, while the Indonesian rupiah, another high-yielder, fell to 9,412 per dollar, its weakest point since June 2006.
Traders in Jakarta said Bank Indonesia must have sold between $800 million and $900 million as it tried to brake the rupiah's decline and stop it from slipping beyond 9,400 per dollar. Central banks in Malaysia and the Philippines were also suspected of intervening to support their currencies.
The euro, sterling and Australian and New Zealand dollars fell as investors moved out of higher-yielding assets and bought back the low-yielding yen. The yen hit a 4-1/2-month high against the dollar.
A Reuters poll showed market participants were pushing back the possibility of a rise in official Japanese rates to September from August. The euro has also been hurt by a paring of the chances of a rate rise by the European Central Bank next month.
"Indonesia will, of course, be an issue when you have this kind of risk aversion because of the high yields," said UOB Bank strategist Jimmy Koh. Koh said he was more worried about other asset markets than about currencies.
"So far it has been an issue of market sentiment. But it can become a fundamental issue if there is a sharp pullback in liquidity and that introduces a risk premium into other sectors of the economy, thereby dampening consumption," Koh said. Markets in South Korea and India were closed for holidays. The Singapore dollar fell more than half a percent to the weaker side of 1.53 per US dollar. The Malaysian ringgit hit 3.4930 per dollar, its weakest since the end of June.
"Currently, we're having a bit more pressure on the Asian currencies as a result of base dollar strength, not so much against the yen but more against European currencies," said Thio Chin Loo, a currency strategist at BNP Paribas.
"It's just a symptom of unwinding of risk across the board and this has affected Asian currencies as well," she added. The flow of bad news from credit markets has not abated.
Concern grew after a US investment firm wanted to halt redemption's on Tuesday and a Canadian trust couldn't find funds to repay some short-term debt. Wal-Mart, the world's largest retailer, cut its profit forecast and Swiss Bank UBS warned that market turmoil was likely to hit its investment banking business.
"We continue to see price action driven primarily by crisis management and position liquidation rather than active decision making," said Bank of America strategist Christy Tan. "We're still in the midst of a deleveraging environment," she said.

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