Ecuador's President Rafael Correa is gambling his political future on securing a majority in a special assembly to rewrite the constitution and push a leftist agenda so far stymied by his opponents in Congress.
Correa, a political outsider who took office in January, has seen key proposals struck down or diluted by lawmakers who once supported his reformist agenda but are now among the harshest critics of the former finance minister.
Popular with Ecuadoreans fed up with political infighting, Correa vows to disband Congress if his party can pull off a majority in a 130-member assembly to revamp the constitution.
Correa has promised to quit should he lose the September 30 vote, threatening to reignite the political upheaval that has seen three presidents toppled by street protests in the last decade. But he could still try to build a majority with alliances even without an outright win.
"This is crucial for us. If we do poorly in the assembly, our government will do poorly," said Alberto Acosta, the head candidate for Correa's political alliance. "This is our chance to push our reformist agenda." With no representatives in Congress, Correa briefly enjoyed sway over the legislature after a court fired 57 opposition lawmakers in March for obstructing his plans to create the popular assembly.
But in a show of independence, new legislators have turned against Correa, who has spooked investors with pledges to renegotiate oil deals and Ecuador's foreign debt and curb the power of traditional elites. Correa also wants to divide Congress in two chambers and ensure judges are appointed on merit instead of political patronage. He has not yet made clear his specific economic reform proposals.
Opposition leaders say Correa wants to use the assembly to bolster his powers and control key institutions as his ally Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez did after his 1998 election. Correa remains popular but with 3,229 candidates vying for 130 seats, from a Roman Catholic priest to beauty queens, he may struggle to secure an majority in the assembly.
A panel of experts is reviewing constitutional reform proposals to present the assembly with an initial draft rewrite. A majority in the assembly must approve a new constitution before it is ratified in a referendum.