Bangkok Bank said on Monday it would be more difficult to expand loans over the rest of this year as global market volatility would add risks to a Thai economy already suffering from political uncertainty.
But Thailand's largest lender still stuck to its 4-5 percent loan growth target in hope that a general election promised for December would revive investment confidence, executive vice president Kulathida Sivayathorn told Reuters.
"We are attempting to achieve our target, but it depends on external factors," Kulathida said of the bank's 40-50 billion baht ($1.2-$1.5 billion) lending target this year. "Global uncertainties are likely to make it more difficult in the second half" as concerns about a US economic recession following the subprime crisis would affect the Thai export sector and investment sentiment, she said.
"Lending to the export sector should be higher this year, but the growth rate is at a slower pace," she said. The bank's export and commercial lending sector accounts for 20 percent of the bank's 905 billion baht of outstanding loans. Last month, Bangkok Bank, a barometer for the Thai banking industry, reported 2.7 percent loan growth in the first six months of the year while number two Krung Thai Bank reported a 2.1 percent fall.
The Thai economy is forecast to grow 4 percent this year despite expected slowing exports growth, but hopes of improving consumption and private investment should boost the economy, the Finance Ministry says. The ministry cut its 2007 export growth forecast to 12.5 percent from 13.7 percent compared with a 17 percent rise last year. Exports grew only 5.9 percent in July from a year earlier.
The sub-prime turmoil fuelled a global credit squeeze and worries about riskier forms of debt, hitting shares world-wide recently and prompting several firms to delay investment and expansion plans.
However, the impact on Bangkok Bank, which has 1.54 trillion baht in assets, of its $50 million of collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) should be very small as none were related to mortgage-linked securities, Kulathida said.
"Its value was affected by market volatility. If we'reo sell out we won't hurt that much. I believe prices should recover when the market is calmer as it has an 'A2' rating," she said. "Apart from the CDOs, most our investments are government and state enterprises bonds as we give priority to safe investment," Kulathida said of such bonds accounting for 90 percent of its 300 billion baht of investments.
The top bank, 48 percent owned by foreign institutional investors, expected to maintain 2007 net interest margins at the 3.1 percent it made last year due to controlled costs and higher revenues, Kulathida said without giving a net profit forecast.
The bank has said it expected a 2007 net profit near the 17.9 billion baht it earned last year, weighed down by provisions and taxes, while 18 analysts polled by Reuters Estimates projected a 11.5 percent rise in net profit to 19.9 billion baht.
The bank reported a 22 percent rise in second-quarter net profit to 5.34 billion baht, helped by investment gains. The higher quarterly profit boosted its first-half profit to 9.97 billion baht, up 4.18 percent from a year earlier.
At 0517 GMT, Bangkok Bank shares, valued at $6.88 billion on the Thai bourse, were up 1.7 percent at 118 baht, while the main SET index was up 0.5 percent. Bangkok Bank shares have risen 7.3 percent since the start of this year, lagging a 16.8 percent rise on the SET index.