Japanese share prices will likely continue to be volatile next week with eyes on potential action by the United States to treat its troubled housing sector, analysts said Friday. Market players are closely monitoring remarks due from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and President George W. Bush to see if any remedies will calm the market.
"Japanese share prices will be dependent on what the central figures of politics and economy - Bernanke and Bush - say," said Masayoshi Yano, a strategist at Tokai Tokyo Securities.
Important events slated include board meetings of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The US will release data on unemployment and in-store merchandising and the Fed will issue its so-called "Beige Book" on economic conditions.
"If the two top figures show positive views, Japanese share prices will likely recover beyond the 16,500 level," Yano said. "If not, we fear that the mortgage woes may seriously affect the US economy."
The global equity markets have been volatile over the last few weeks amid concerns over the US "subprime" sector of housing loans to customers with patchy credit histories. Defaults on the loans have raised fears of a liquidity squeeze as investors run away to cover their losses. For the week to August 31, Tokyo's benchmark Nikkei-225 index continued to recover from a sharp drop in early August. It rebounded to 16,569.09, up 320.12 or 1.97 percent from a week earlier.
The broader Topix index of all first-section shares advanced to 1,608.25, rising 22.4 points or 1.41 percent. Yuji Shimanaka, chief economist of business cycle research at Mitsubishi UFJ Securities, warned that the Japanese share market will stay volatile over the next two weeks. "I don't think the market will feel at ease unless the Fed goes for another notch down on the rate at the September 18 meeting," he said.
The turmoil has raised expectations that the Fed will slash its benchmark interest rate at the regular meeting next month.
On August 17, the Fed took the emergency action of cutting by a half-point, to 5.75 percent, its "discount rate," which is charged to commercial banks, helping non-block frozen credit and calm jittery markets. Japan has no major data set for release next week.
Japan released a chunk of data on Friday that showed unemployment falling but inflation still failing to pick up, further clouding prospects of a domestic interest rate hike. Asia's largest economy keeps its benchmark interest rate at 0.5 percent, the lowest of any major country, and the Bank of Japan policy board has long said it planned to raise the level gradually. But analysts say a rate hike is looking increasingly unlikely in the near future due to the global uncertainties. "It is important that the Bank of Japan doesn't suggest for now that it's raising interest rates," Shimanaka said.