Kyrgyzstan votes in a constitutional referendum on Sunday that could substantially weaken the president's powers in a bid to resolve years of political upheaval in this Central Asian state.
The proposed reform, which would strengthen the parliament in the former Soviet republic, is widely expected to be adopted although analysts have warned that turnout may be low for the snap referendum. Kyrgyz President Kurmanbek Bakiyev had promised to reform the constitution after coming to power in 2005 on the back of a popular revolt that toppled his predecessor Askar Akayev.
"The president has taken his responsibilities at last and is bringing constitutional reform to its logical end," said Melis Eshimkanov, a member of parliament and a frequent critic of Bakiyev's rule.
Kyrgyzstan is located at a strategic crossroads and hosts US and Russian military bases. It is seen as a relatively democratic country surrounded by authoritarian regimes in Central Asia.
The association of Kyrgyz political scientists said that the reform would probably be adopted but added that it could lead to "political conflict" if the authorities boost turnout figures. "That would lead to the results not being recognised by political forces and would make the plebiscite illegitimate," the association said in a statement. Fifty percent of the electorate has to vote for the referendum to be valid.
Some opposition leaders have also said that Bakiyev called the referendum in order to dissolve parliament and hold fresh elections that would boost his newly-created Ak Zhol party. Bakiyev has been involved in numerous stand-offs with the parliament and is mindful of the fact that rigged parliamentary elections led to the revolution in 2005 that ousted his predecessor, analysts said.
"Neither the parties, nor the people will be able to prepare for new parliamentary elections that quickly. It would be unacceptable if they take place before the end of 2007," said Omurbek Tekebayev, an opposition leader.
Tekebayev accused Bakiyev of wanting to impose "an authoritarian regime." Bakiyev was elected by a landslide in an election that was praised by Western election observers but he has been accused by opposition leaders of high-handed tactics to hold on to power.