Asian currencies: peso see-saws on flows, mutiny attempt

30 Nov, 2007

The Philippine peso grabbed the spotlight in Asian trading on Thursday, as it swung back and forth from a 7-year high boosted by prospective foreign investment flows and then hurt by news of a military mutiny bid. Other Asian currencies rose, underpinned by improving risk appetite after a rally in US stocks overnight.
The peso initially rose to a 7-year peak of 42.60 per dollar, additionally helped by Wednesday's news that local power firm Aboitiz Power and Norway's SN Power had won an auction for two Philippine hydropower plants with a $325 million bid.
It then fell on reports two dozen soldiers, half of them facing trial for a failed mutiny in 2003, were holed up in a luxury hotel in Manila and calling for the overthrow of President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo.
Yet, markets seemed to shrug off the possibility of the group garnering big support, let alone a coup. The peso fell to 42.98 and then rallied to end local trade at 42.75. "The situation is unlike 2003 and there is probably not the same undertone of political or military instability," said Emmanuel Ng, a strategist at OCBC Bank.
Traders said there was limited impact of economic news earlier in the day of slower than expected economic growth in the third quarter and a Philippine government forecast that exports this year would not be as strong as it had expected. The Indonesian rupiah also gained strongly, rising 0.4 percent to 9,378 per dollar, while the Malaysian ringgit, climbed half a percent to 3.368 per dollar.
The Singapore dollar almost hit 1.44 per US dollar, up a quarter of a percent, before retreating on suspected intervention by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to cap the currency.
The US dollar lost ground to the euro after the Federal Reserve's Beige Book report showed US growth had slowed and said housing demand was depressed. But US stocks rose after comments from Fed officials raised the chances of another US rate cut in December. That led to a revival in risk appetite and interest in carry trades, most often funded by cheap yen borrowings.
The yen stayed near Wednesday's lows on the weaker side of 110 per dollar. Even the Korean won and Indian rupee managed light gains despite a persisting US dollar funding squeeze that has hit bonds and caused implied returns on the currencies to tumble.
The dollar scarcity has resulted primarily from policy curbs on short-term foreign borrowings and risk reduction by multinational banks, analysts said. The won rose to 928 per dollar from a low of 931 amid reports the Bank of Korea injected cash to prop up a falling bond market.

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