The International Cocoa Organisation (ICCO) said on Friday it had increased its estimate for the global cocoa deficit in 2006/07 to 242,000 tonnes from a previous forecast of 156,000 tonnes. The ICCO estimated a global surplus of 167,000 tonnes in 2005/06. Investment bank Fortis earlier this month forecast an even larger deficit in 2006/07 of 301,000 tonnes.
The ICCO did not provide a projection for 2007/08 when Fortis expects cocoa to move back into surplus with a current projection of a 74,000 tonne excess. World production in 2006/07 was expected to fall to 3.40 million tonnes, down from a previous forecast of 3.44 million and the prior year's 3.72 million, the ICCO said. Global grindings were seen rising to 3.61 million from 3.56 million previously and 3.52 million in 2005/06, it added.