Falling rice exports continue to further widen the current account deficit; for the nine months ended of the ongoing fiscal year, Pakistan’s total rice exports are down 14.5 percent year-on-year in terms of quantity, and 14.9 percent in terms of value.

In recent months, however, the trend that Basmati and non-Basmati rice have been following has reversed; Basmati rice is now picking up speed and non-Basmati is falling. For the month of March 2017, Basmati exports are up 162 percent over last year, while non-Basmati is down by a whopping 43 percent.

As this column has oft reported, Basmati rice has been in trouble for a while now for a multitude of factors – stiff competition from India, lack of research and investment in new varieties, and the loss of one of our key customers, Iran. However, an industry source told BR Research that the issue of banking channels with Iran has been resolved and dealing has begun. In its heyday (as of 2011, when rice exports peaked), Pakistan exported almost 14 percent of Basmati exports to Iran – our once largest market. Now business has resumed and, although the underlying issues in Basmati still persist, the opening up of this major market is great news.

As for non-Basmati exports, the boom that was seen throughout most of last year has come to a screeching halt. The issue, apparently, has been one of price; our source said that hoarders in Sindh are manipulating the price and controlling the market – something this column will explore soon.