Short-dated US government bonds rose on Friday as stocks turned negative on investor fears a White House stimulus package might not keep the economy from sliding into recession.
US President George W. Bush called for an economic stimulus package of around $140 billion. For plunging equity markets, that was not enough, and they reacted by capping a brutal week with yet another bout of selling. This allowed two-year Treasury notes to climb as much as 4/32 in price, pushing its yield to a new three-year low of 2.33 percent.
"It is probably going to be too little and too late," said Mary Ann Hurley, vice president of fixed-income trading at D.A. Davidson & Co in Seattle, of the Bush initiative. Data on consumer sentiment showed a modest uptick, but to levels that were still consistent with a sharp slowing in the economy.
The focus for financial markets was on beleaguered stocks, with the S&P 500 down over 5 percent this week, and on track for its worst weekly performance in 5-1/2 years.
The index was down 0.85 percent on Friday alone. Longer-dated bonds sold off a bit on profit-taking, however, with 30-year notes down 14/32 and yielding 4.28 percent, up two basis points. An index of leading indicators fell 0.2 percent, more than expected and consistent with other figures pointing to a notable retrenchment in economic activity.
This trend has fuelled a six-month rally in the bond market as investors price in both a recession and aggressive interest rate cutting by the Federal Reserve. The markets are now looking for at least a half percentage point easing at the Fed's late January meeting, which would bring the fed funds rate to 3.75 percent.