Dry weather in Sao Paulo state during most of the second half of 2007 should cut yields of cane to be harvested in April and May in Brazil's largest producing area, Ribeirao Preto, a research institute said on Wednesday.
That, however, does not mean lower ethanol and sugar output on average in the 2008/09 season, as conditions of the cane, which will be harvested as of June, will be much determined by weather in the coming months, it said.
"We had a very dry winter in 2007, after a dry winter the year before. January was rainy but not sunny. So all this will lead to lower yields in the beginning of the new season," Maximiliano Salles Scarpari, a researcher at the Agricultural Institute, said.
The institute, which is run by the Sao Paulo state government, expects cane yields in April and May in Ribeirao Preto region to average 87 to 88 tonnes per hectare, down 6.3 percent from the same period a year ago. Ribeirao Preto accounted for about one-third of Sao Paulo's cane output in 2007/08, according to IAC. The whole state grows around 60 percent of Brazil's cane crop.
Scarpari said the situation looked similar in other areas, such as Catanduva and Aracatuba, in the north-west of the Sao Paulo state. He added the lack of sunny days in January could also contribute to reduce the concentration of sucrose in cane.
Brazil is the world's largest cane producer and the biggest sugar and ethanol exporter. Traders estimate the 2008/09 cane crop at between 460 million and 480 million tonnes, up from 426 million tonnes in 2007/08, but producers say it's too early to give any forecast as it would still depend on the weather in the coming months.
Some analysts say the lack of rain in August, September and December delayed the growth of the cane, which needs water and sun at this point to grow properly. Brazil's government expects cane output to rise around 10 percent in 2008/09, considering the crop's average increase over the past few years.
"We'll have the first official forecast only in May, June, but the trend is for the expansion to continue at this rate of around 10 percent," said the director of the sugar cane and agroenergy department at the Agriculture Ministry, Alexandre Strapasson.