Officials of Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (MINFAL) apprehend 15 percent shortfall in the current year''s wheat production target of 24 million tons due to multiple factors which could further increase the food inflation.
Wheat is a major and staple food crop of the country. Pakistan imported 1.5 million tons of wheat recently to meet its growing domestic demand despite local production of 23.3 million tons.
Official sources told Business Recorder here on Saturday that the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) had set a target of 8.578 million hectares for wheat sowing to produce 24 million tons for 2008 Rabi crop. However, they said due to late start of sugarcane crushing and delayed cotton picking the wheat could only be sown on 96 percent of the target area.
Another factor, which had a bearing on the current wheat crop sowing, was non-announcement of wheat support price despite attractive international wheat prices. They listed the unprecedented price hike of the DAP fertiliser as the major factor of the 15 percent estimated decline in the wheat production. "There has been 60 percent less use of the DAP fertiliser this year", they added.
Officials said there was 28 percent water shortage this year for the Rabi crop which came down to 21 percent due to timely winter rains. However only wheat crop in the Barani areas (14 percent of the total wheat crop) was the main beneficiary of these rains, they added.
With regard to the possible impact of this shortfall on the food inflation and flour prices in the coming months, the agro-economists said that current price of wheat in the open market was Rs 800 plus as against Rs 425 to R. 460 during the last year''s corresponding period.
They said that wheat-harvesting season would start in lower Sindh later this month but the flour /wheat prices were not likely to come down immediately. They that the government has decided to purchase 7 million tons of the wheat at the market rate and not to impose restrictions on the inter-district or inter provincial movement of the wheat.
Last year (2007) the government had fixed 5 million tons wheat procurement target for the public sector , ie 3 million tons by the Punjab, 0.7 million tons by Sindh and 1.3 million tons by PASSCO.
They said that the private sector is also being encouraged to participate in the wheat procurement operations through support of various banks.. These steps would benefit the growers who would get a fair price of their produce which was only Rs 425 per maund last year" they hoped.
Punjab province produces about 18 million tons of wheat as against its requirement of 8 million tons, while Sindh, NWFP and Balochistan are deficit in the wheat production.
They said traditionally food prices are linked with the flour prices in Pakistan and if any increase in flour / wheat price would impact prices of other commodities. They said it would be impossible for any future government to maintain the present flour price of Rs 15 per KG.