Political allies of embattled President Pervez Musharraf are poised on edge of a crushing electoral defeat in crucial parliamentary elections, an exit poll and initial count showed after relatively peaceful balloting on Monday.
PML-Q ROUTED, PRO-MUSHARRAF CANDIDATES COME TUMBLING DOWN, ANP THUNDERS IN NWFP WHERE MMA SUFFERS HUMILIATION MQM IS GOING TO RETAIN STRANGLEHOLD OVER KARACHI: Bitter opponents of the isolated leader are seemingly heading towards a two-thirds majority in the vote for the National Assembly-which implies they can humiliate him with an impeachment.
But none of the main anti-Musharraf outfits-Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N)-could secure a clear victory to form the government single handedly.
Opposition parties are, however, in a position now to undo steps Musharraf had taken after suspending the constitution and purging top judiciary last November.
Heads of both PPP and PML-N-Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif-have reportedly agreed in recent meetings not to give constitutional clearance to such actions of the President.
Musharraf is being aggressively blamed at home for killing own people in the US-led war on terror, and harshly criticised by rights groups abroad for the suppression of independent voices against his rule.
Parliamentary vote, for the first time in six years, was primarily being seen as referendum against the ex military chief who seized power in a bloodless coup eight years ago.
The defeat of some top leaders of Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid (PML-Q), a political party that associated with him to rule for past five years, including its president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, indicates that he must start thinking to leave now.
In an interview to a German Magazine soon after he declared emergency on November 3 last year, Musharraf himself said he would prefer resigning if opposition parties come to power after elections, exactly what has happened now.
Experts said the humiliation for these high ranking PML-Q politicians was primarily due to their association with the beleaguered leader.
There were conflicting accounts on what was the turn out of voters with official estimates putting it as high as 35 to 40 percent, but independent observers placing it under 25%. Close to half of registered voters in rural areas turned up to cast ballots. In urban localities, however, the proportion was less than 15% in some cases.
More than 80 million Pakistanis aged 18 or above were registered for Monday's vote, that was also considered as the revival of democracy in the country after eight years of authoritarian rule by Musharraf. The polling day was dreaded but peaceful by and large after weeks of a bloody campaign that witnessed several attacks on election rallies including suicide bombings.
There were mounting fears a day earlier that al Qaeda-linked terrorists allegedly based in Pakistani lawlessness tribal regions bordering Afghanistan in west could strike to disrupt what they considered an un-Islamic exercise. But the day passed without any major hit. Less than a dozen people across the country were, however, killed in poll related violence, majority of them in Punjab province.
PML-N of former premier Nawaz Sharif and PPP of slain opposition leader Benazir Bhutto are appearing as the largest parties as per popular estimates of late. Both would have to seek power sharing between each other or with some other small regional groups to form governments in the center and in provinces. The power equation in two conservative provinces is also joined by religious and nationalists players.
In NWFP, Awami National Party (ANP) is ahead of all but PPP in Pushtoon majority southern district and PML-N in the extreme north was also in the race. A now-divided Islamic alliance called Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) that won majority in the conservative provinces on the back of anti-US sentiments after Afghan invasion by America a year earlier has almost been eliminated from power tussle.
HEAVYWEIGHTS FALL: Most horrible for Musharraf's associates was the defeat of heavyweights of formerly ruling PML-Q including its president Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain from both constituencies he was contesting in.
His cousin and former Punjab Chief Minister Chaudhry Pervaiz Ellahi was also reportedly not winning from all the constituencies he was fighting from. Minister sin former regime-Sheikh Rashid Ahmed, Humayun Akhtar and Ijazul Haq-were also among those who had lost their parliamentary seats. Sheikh is a politician who has never lost since 1988 from his stronghold Rawalpindi city near Islamabad.
Maulana Fazlur Rehman, a top leader MMA, had lost his home constituency in Dera Ismail Khan district of NWFP. Over all in the province, Islamists who swept 2002 elections had been defeated completely by ANP and PPP. In non-Pushtoon northern belt (Hazara), however, PML-N emerged as largest party.
In Punjab, Nawaz Sharif and PPP won in northern and southern districts respectably. PPP also did well in its fiefdom of rural Sindh and shared gains with Muttahida Quomi Movement (MQM) in the urban centers including Karachi in the province. No party seems to have secured a clear victory in Balochistan.