Fortis said on Tuesday it estimated a small global cocoa deficit during the 2007/08 season of 32,000 tonnes, revising a previous forecast of a 74,000-tonne surplus. In a monthly report, the investment bank said it reduced its overall net production estimate for the year to September 2008 by 116,000 tonnes to 3.659 million tonnes.
Around 90,000 tonnes of the reduction was attributed to Africa, and of that 60,000 tonnes was related to lower Ivory Coast output, it said. Fortis said it cut its estimate for the main Ivorian crop to 1.13 million tonnes from 1.175 million, a drop of 45,000 tonnes.
The mid crop was seen 15,000 tonnes lower at 360,000. Fortis said it had also trimmed its estimate of production in the Americas (down by a net 7,000 tonnes) and in Asia (down by around 20,000 tonnes).
It also slightly reduced its global grindings estimate, revising it down 10,000 tonnes to 3.691 million, primarily due to a lower grind in Asia, although offset by a slightly higher figure for Europe. It said the overall switch into a global deficit for 2007/08, the second successive year, implied stocks of 1.55 million tonnes and a stocks/grinding ratio of 42 percent versus the 1.654 million tonnes and 45 percent estimated in November.