As Asif Ali Zardari and Nawaz Sharif scramble to put together an alliance to form a Government one thing must be on their mind: How would their voters react to their alliance-formation. Are they emotionally supportive of some political parties more than others? Are they pre-disposed to some alliances more than others?
Anticipating this situation the Gallup Pakistan - Business Recorder Exit Poll Survey had asked a nationally representative sample of voters on the Election Day: "You have just voted for a person of your choice. Please let us know who would have been your second best choice?"
The responses by the voters of all the leading parties were both interesting and revealing. A sizeable group, although a minority, in each party refused to give a second choice. They were firmly attached to the party of their first choice and would not speculate on any other possibility.
For want of a better description we have termed them as the "Rigid Voters". Yet a majority in each party's voters mentioned a second choice. These choices would be a good tip for party leaders about the preferences of the voters who voted them in as parliament members. Here are the findings:
THE RIGID VOTERS:
The proportion of rigid voters who would not even speculate on a second best choice varies from party to party. Interestingly it was the lowest in the PML(N) vote bank, 25 % and the highest in the PML(Q), 55 %. (Figure 1)
PREFERRED ALLIES:
TABLE 1:
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SECOND BEST CHOICE
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AMONG
VOTERS OF RIGID NR
PREFERENCES OF ALLIANCE MINDED VOTERS
VOTERS
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PPP PML-N PML-Q MQM ANP Others
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PPP 40% 14% 1% 2% 8% 35% 0%
PML-N 45% 20% 1% 2% 7% 25% 1%
PML-Q 13% 17% 9% 0% 5% 55% 1%
MQM 36% 4% 12% 0% 3% 46% 0%
ANP 17% 18% 4% 1% 20% 40% 1%
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