Chicago soyabean futures touched a new record high in Asian trade on Monday, leading the rise in grains as a weak dollar, which promotes exports, and strong Chinese demand spurred buying by funds. The bullishness spread to other related markets, with most Dalian soyaoil futures contracts limit-up to track record-high physical prices, before easing back.
"When you look at the market in perspective, with the weak dollar you have a situation that encourages buying, which I think will continue for a while," said Koji Suzuki, market analyst at Kazaka Commodity Co Ltd.
Prices on the Chicago Board of Trade have risen more than 20 percent this year alone lifted by the view that US soyabean and soyaoil supplies will shrink in the coming year. Hot Chinese demand, a weak dollar and an expanding biodiesel industry that uses vegetable oils as feedstock also helped the boost. "Given that Chinese demand is strong dips will be bought," Suzuki said.
A US Agriculture Department attache report said on Friday: "China's oilseed demand in MY08/09 is forecast to continue growing due to increases in animal production, use of industrially produced animal feeds, and higher human consumption." Chicago July soyabeans, one of the strongest contracts, rose as high as $15.73 per bushel, an all-time high, compared with Friday's close of $15.46 and topping the previous record of $15.48-set that day.
CBOT US soyabean futures reached record highs late on Friday as speculative capital bought soya as a hedge against inflation. The dollars slide deepened on Monday, falling to a record low against a basket of currencies as new worries about the health of US financial firms and fears of a US recession stoked expectations of aggressive rate cuts. It hit a three-year low against the yen below 103 and an all-time trough against the Swiss franc.
Chicago wheat futures bounced back as dips were bought, after falling sharply on Friday on fund long liquidation and profit taking at month's end, concluding a week of volatile trading.
The spot March wheat contract was trading at around $10.92-per bushel, compared with its on Friday close of $10.73. CBOT wheat prices have also risen more than 20 percent so far in 2008 buoyed by scarce US and global wheat supplies and heavy investment from commodity funds and other large speculators.
Most analysts expect a big rebound in world wheat output for 2008 due to expanded plantings, although the market is still vulnerable to any threat to new-crop yields. The daily trading limit for deferred wheat contracts in Chicago, Kansas City Board of Trade and Minneapolis Grain Exchange will revert to 60 cents per bushel for Monday, the exchanges said on Friday.
The exchanges had widened the limits after days of market volatility. The spot March contract at all three US exchanges will continue to trade without limits ahead of expiration on March 14. Chicago corn futures were relatively quiet, with the spot March contract rising as high as $5.51-a bushel before retreating a touch.