Malaysia votes on Saturday and the ruling coalition is virtually assured of victory, but there are signs a few painful surprises could still be in store.
The campaign has been dull even by standards of Malaysian democracy, which has never seen a change of government. But this does not necessarily portend another easy victory for the Barisan Nasional (National Front) coalition, political experts said on Thursday.
A sharply reduced majority could threaten Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi's leadership and lead to a purge of Barisan, its cabinet line-up and policy platform, they said. "Every party in the Barisan, especially the key component parties, will face a reckoning as a result of this election," said political scientist Bridget Welsh, of Johns Hopkins University, who is in Malaysia for the election.
Barisan's main threat comes from the minority ethnic Indian and Chinese communities, which make up a third of the population. They have shown clear signs of discontent with the coalition, which is dominated by the ethnic Malay majority, and have been quietly turning up in droves to night-time opposition rallies during the past two weeks of campaigning.
"The attendance of Chinese and Indian voters at opposition rallies seems to be overwhelming, much higher than in previous elections," said pollster Ibrahim Suffian, of local market-research firm, the Merdeka Center.
Barisan concedes that a protest vote by Chinese and Indians could cost them some seats. But neither the coalition, the opposition parties nor the pundits seem sure of just how many. The loss of 40 seats or more could ring alarm bells for Barisan, said Welsh. It now holds 199 seats and says it needs to retain at least 148 seats, or two-thirds, in the next 222-seat parliament to ensure "stability".
That is code for the election of 1969, the last time the coalition failed to win a two-thirds majority, the level required to change the constitution. After the 1969 vote, race riots broke out and a state of emergency ensued until 1971.
"They (Barisan) will panic if the opposition gets 40 seats," said Zainon Ahmad, political editor of the Sun newspaper, which toes a more independent line than the pro-government dailies.
"But if BN (Barisan Nasional) loses two-thirds majority, there will be a lot to account for by the leaders. "I don't think that's going to happen ... but if BN loses 50 seats, it's a remarkable gain by the opposition and the BN have to review some of the policies and tone down the Malay agenda."
Pollster Ibrahim, who has been working on privately commissioned opinion polls during the campaign, said he felt the opposition parties could perhaps win around 35 to 40 seats in the new parliament, including the 20 they currently hold.
It could be more if Malays also desert Barisan, he added. Even if Abdullah avoids a major reduction of his majority on Saturday, there could be trouble in the shape of a vociferous opposition-backed campaign for reform of the electoral system.
A lobby group called Bersih brought 10,000 people onto the streets of the capital last November to call for more balanced media coverage of politics, fairer electoral boundaries, reform of electoral rolls and tighter controls against voter fraud.
A senior member of Bersih said on Thursday he felt more street protests could be likely if Saturday's election is perceived to have not reflected the will of the voters. "I think there's quite likely to be (protests), but at the moment there is no decision yet made," said Bersih's Yap Swee Seng, a human rights campaigner and opposition supporter.