The government will have to spend about Rs 100 billion on the import of 3 million tons wheat to meet the production shortfall and Rs 50 billion on provision of flour at subsidised rates during 2008-09.
Talking to Business recorder here on Tuesday, agroeconomists painted a very grim picture of food prices in the coming months due to the ill planning and criminal neglect of the agriculture sector during the past eight years.
A veteran agro-economist, Sultan Ali, estimated this season's wheat production at 20 million tons, which is short of 4 million tons of the country's annual requirements. He said the new government would be in a very difficult situation as it would have to spend at least $1.5 billion on import of wheat alone, which is already in short supply in the international market. General Secretary, Farmers Associates of Pakistan, Idrees Khokhar, demanded of the government to raise the support price to Rs 1200 per 40 kg.
Farooq Bajwa, convenor of Water Council, said that the farmers would suffer a loss of Rs 300 billion because of 50 percent lower price being paid to them as compared to the international counterparts. He apprehended that the country would suffer a loss of Rs 300 billion on import of wheat and other agriculture products, which would mean that the government of Pakistan would be benefiting the farmers/growers of other countries instead of Pakistan farmers/growers.
Advisor to All Pakistan Flour Mills Association, Bilal Aslam, said the government should make all-out efforts to purchase about 6 million tons wheat from the current crop. He suggested that the flour mills and the private sector should not buy wheat from the growers till the government met its purchase target. He said through administrative steps like streamlining the flour distribution system in the urban areas and stoppage of smuggling of estimated about 0.6 million tons wheat to Afghanistan, Iran and India, the government could avert a major food crisis.
President of Kissan Board Pakistan, Zafar Hussain, has demanded that the government should provide a separate service structure to the agri-scientists so that they could serve the agriculture sector with devotion. He said that about 300 agriculture scientists have left the country because of the government's step-motherly treatment.
Domestic market players say that the international wheat smugglers were already making direct contacts with the growers to purchase this staple food at much exorbitant price than government support price.
They say that the government would have to take extraordinary steps to check wheat smuggling through Chaman, Khyber, Zahidan and Indian border routes. Reports from the international market indicate skyrocketing food prices have sparked protests around the world, as well as riots in places like Egypt. Economists say there are several reasons-record high oil prices, growing demand from countries like China, and bad weather like a recent drought in Australia. And, then there is the rise of biofuels - more and more land has been given over to crops grown not for food, but for fuel.