The current cotton crop is at the verge of finalisation with seed-cotton equivalent to 11.331 million running bales down 8.5 percent up to 31st March, 08 with Sindh province producing 2.519 million bales - up 8.67 percent and Punjab 8.812 million bales down 12.46 percent.
Now, the final crop size may not go beyond 11.5 million running bales which when converted into standard 170-Kb bale weight comes to 10.68 million bales - a poor performance of our Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (Minfal) and third continuous decline in annual cotton production from record high production of 14.3 million bales in 2004-2005 to 12.6 in 2005-06, to 12.4 in 2006-07 and to 11.7 in 2007-08 season.
This pattern of decreasing production indicates a poor crop of even less than 10 million bales in 2008-09 season. Like previous three seasons when government fixed productions targets around 14.2 million bales but failed to achieve it, almost same target is likely to be fixed for 2008-09 season but serious concerns are found among concerned cotton production circles who think that on the face of two the most important production factors viz: Poor and infested seed for sowing and larger shortage of irrigation water in next cotton season, crop size may even fall below 10 million mark.
Practically, there is no cure readily available except any miraculous performance. The new government's Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani would reportedly announce cotton policy for next season on 15th April, 2008. The trade circles do not expect any thing new in the ensuing policy except the continuation of last policies, which have failed to even achieve the production targets. Actually, one cannot bring revolutionary changes unless all departments and institutions under Minfal are overhauled and only result-oriented policies are adopted.
The only one institution namely Pakistan Cotton Standard Institute (PCSI) responsible for Cotton Grading and Standardisation in Pakistan is fighting for its existence as the Ministry of Textiles is taking such measures which tantamount to closure of the Pakistan Cotton Standard Institute (PCSI) initiated some 25 years back in 1983. The PCSI made great efforts in preparation of the Standards of Pakistan Cotton which are accepted by international Institutions the world over and their work was duly appreciated.
The President of Pakistan through an Ordinance in 2004 enacted Pakistan Cotton Standards Act under which cotton grading system was to be implemented at ginning stage but Pakistan cotton still remains ungraded on one or the other excuse. The beautiful building of the PCSI built behind the building of Pakistan Central Cotton Committee (PCCC) on M. T. Road, Karachi some 16 year ago has been demolished with the PCCC building to provide place for US Consulate building. Now, the PCSI is housed in a small rented place with no accommodation for setting up its laboratory and classing hall.
Practically, the PCSI is without any job and most of its technical officers have been transferred to Multan where there is no work for them. Some seven laboratories have been established in different places in Sindh and Punjab under PCSI with total cost of some more than Rs 100 millions and there is no work. The warrantee period of the machines would expire soon and heavy expenses would be required for their maintenance and necessary repair.
The new government is requested to look into the matter of PCSI sympathetically and take necessary steps to implement cotton grading system in Pakistan to reorganise PCSI and improve the quality of our lint cotton. Also the new government should overhaul and reorganise the Federal Ministry of Food, Agriculture and Livestock (Minfal) and institutions and organisation working under it for promotion of cotton to make them production-oriented. The performance of Minfal in respect of cotton production has been very poor hurting the interests of the growers and the economy of Pakistan.
The Karachi Cotton Exchange has been without cotton future trading for the last 35 years and now the operation of future trading in cotton should be resumed to provide protection to cotton trade against market risks. As a matter of fact Pakistan is lacking behind in cotton production, quality of cotton and cotton marketing because cotton policies are not grower-friendly, quality-oriented and trade friendly and are virtually serving the interests of middlemen, exploiters, seed-mafia, market exploiters and other vested interests.
The government should appoint a broad-based Trade Commission for identifying the factors for poor performance of our agriculture sector in general and cotton sector in particular and suggest ways and means to bring revolution in cotton and other agri-produces to fight the growing challenges.
New cotton crop sowing in the districts of Lower Sindh viz: Tharparkar, Badin, Thatta, Mirpur Khas, and Hyderabad has been delayed by two weeks to five weeks on non-availability of irrigation water. Water in main Water Reservoirs is reported at dead-level, monsoon rains are away and melting of snow on mountains has been delayed on extended cold weather. Poor quality and mealy-bug infested seed is only available which may fail to give desired results. Cotton trade circles including official circles are much worried over the fears of even poor performance of ensuing cotton crop next season.
The increasing prices/cost of import-commodities such as crude-oil, edible oil, food-grains accompanied with poor domestic production of cotton, would adversely affect Pakistan economy.