High exports mean Canada's end March 2008 canola stocks were likely to have fallen by about one million tonnes on the year to a four-year-low of 3.75 million tonnes, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World estimated on Tuesday.
Increasing expectations of lower stocks has recently helped support Canadian canola prices. Official data on the March 31 stocks is set to be issued in May. "In view of the recent strong demand for Canadian canola from exporters and crushers, we consider it possible that stocks will be reduced to less than 700,000 tonnes by end July, down steeply from 1.82 million tonnes at the end of the 2006/07 season," Oil World said.
It currently forecasts Canada's end season August 2007/July 2008 stocks at 680,000 tonnes. Oil World estimates Canada's 2007/08 canola exports will rise to 5.70 million tonnes from 5.43 million tonnes in 2006/07.
Sales were especially strong in February 2008 at 637,000 tonnes, up from 362,000 tonnes in February 2007. The February 2008 total included especially strong sales of 125,000 tonnes to the United Arab Emirates, up from 60,000 tonnes to the country in February 2007. Meanwhile, Canada's domestic 2007/08 canola crushings are also likely to increase to 4.10 million tonnes from 3.58 million tonnes in 2006/07, it said.