US soyaoil exports are likely to remain high in coming weeks as problems hit rival South American suppliers, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday. "Although the Argentine farm strike has been interrupted for 30 days, Argentine exports of soyabeans, soyaoil and meal are still behind schedule in the first half of April," it said.
"There are also export delays in Brazil due to strike action by customs officers and port workers and an export ban for soyaoil and meal in Bolivia." "US exports of soyaoil increased sharply to a 10-year high of 470,000 tonnes in January-March 2008 compared with just 174,000 a year earlier and are likely to remain high in the near term," it estimates. "Also, US exports of soyabeans and soyameal have been higher than expected in recent weeks as a result of the South American export problems."
China plus North African Arab countries and Latin American states were thought by Oil World to have been especially large buyers of US soyaoil in January-March 2008. It estimates China bought 66,000 tonnes of US soyaoil in this time against 62,000 in the same year-ago period. Mexico is estimated to have raised its purchases to 75,000 tonnes from 24,000 tonnes a year ago.
Algeria is thought to have bought 58,000 tonnes in this time, it did not buy any in the same year-ago period. Bolivia's ban on oilseed, vegetable oil and oilmeal exports to combat domestic inflation will cut Bolivia's April-September 2008 soyaoil exports by 100,000 tonnes and soyameal exports by 400,000 tonnes on the year, it estimates.
"The major trading partners are Venezuela, Colombia and Peru," it said. "These countries are now seeking replacement on the world market, purchasing the required quantities of soyaoil and meal either in the US or in Argentina and Brazil."