Macedonians vote on Sunday in a parliamentary election marred by campaign violence and held against a backdrop of uncertainty over progress towards European Union and Nato membership. The conservative VMRO-DPMNE party of Prime Minister Nikola Gruevski is expected to win the most seats in the 120-seat parliament on a surge of nationalist sentiment after neighbouring Greece blocked a Nato invitation in April.
But it is unclear if his party will win an absolute majority. The next government will face pressure to get Nato accession back on track, start talks on joining the European Union and calm tensions after weeks of tit-for-tat violence between rival ethnic Albanian parties.
"These elections are indeed crucial," the EU ambassador in Macedonia, Erwan Fouere, told Reuters, noting Brussels would be keeping a close eye on violence and irregularities. "It would be very important for the country to pass the test ... if it were to get a recommendation from the European Commission for opening negotiations." Gruevski's fractious multi-ethnic coalition - in office for less than two years - called an election after the Nato snub, rattling nerves already on edge after a February declaration of independence by Kosovo Albanians on Macedonia's northern border.
Around 25 percent of Macedonia's 2 million people are ethnic Albanians, living mainly in the north and west. Western nations narrowly averted an ethnic war in 2001, using the lure of Nato and the EU to squeeze greater minority rights from the government and get Albanian guerrillas to disarm and enter politics.
Despite progress on ethnic relations, the country is still largely poor, unstable and hamstrung in its progress by a 17-year dispute with Greece over Macedonia's name. The vote is unlikely to change much as no leading Macedonian party is ready to appease Athens and change the country's name.
Macedonia, which split from Yugoslavia in 1991, has the same name as Greece's most northerly province. Athens says Skopje must use a compound name such as "New" or "Upper" Macedonia. In addition to thwarting the Nato bid, the row is likely to undermine Skopje's efforts to start accession talks with the EU, key to wooing investment to Europe's poorest corner.
Unemployment is at 30 percent, and corruption is rife. "I don't expect any huge changes," professor Vasko Naumovski of the New York University-Skopje told Reuters. "The current establishment, which is expected to win the election, is not ready for a compromise with Greece that could threaten the Macedonian identity."