Water availability during the second phase of Kharif FY09 (June-September) would largely depend on monsoon rains in the catchment areas and conducive high temperatures in the glacial belt, enough to precipitate the melting process, official sources said.
At present, water shortage for the full kharif season has been estimated at 3.7 percent relative to normal requirements for the season, and 1.6 percent lower compared with water availability during the preceding kharif season, they said.
The Indus River System Authority (Irsa) has estimated 7 percent shortage for the first phase of Kharif FY09, with the minimum daily average of only 5,100 cusecs available for Punjab and 3,500 cusecs for Sindh. Water shortages at the sowing time may lead to delay in sowing and shortfall in area under cultivation relative to target. Sources said that delayed sowing results in lower yield.
The water shortage seen in Rabi FY08 is likely to continue in Kharif FY09. The carryover water balance for Kharif 2008 from the ending Rabi season was a negligible 0.013 MAF at Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma as on April 1, 2008. Carryover water balance was 1.5 MAF during the beginning of the corresponding Kharif period. The water shortage is likely to impede sowing of the two major Kharif crops--rice and cotton.
In contrast to predictable water availability in a canal-fed area, water availability in barani areas is entirely dependent on rains. Therefore, yields of various crops are also based on the volume and timings of the rains in these areas.
Meanwhile, farmers are expected to bring more area under kharif crops, implement quality inputs in appropriate quantity with extra efforts to reap the benefits of prevailing higher prices of most of the agri produce. In addition, improved nominal farm income during FY08 will also help boost the confidence and optimism of the farmers. Importantly, area under cotton crop, which has almost stagnated over a decade, is expected to increase amid rising cotton prices.
While water shortages are estimated to continue during kharif FY09, rains during April would have also likely to support the optimism among the farmers. In addition, availability of certified seed, certified Bt cotton seeds, and effective pesticides are crucial factors to improve yield. Similarly, production of other two major kharif crops sugarcane and rice will also largely depend on sufficient monsoon rains, availability of irrigation water as well as efficient use of inputs. Meanwhile, Asian Development Bank (ADB) has extended a loan to improve irrigation and drinking water facilities across the Potohar Plateau, near Islamabad.
Under this project, which will be launched within the next month, Pakistan is to build multipurpose dams, irrigation canals, and drinking water supplies across the Potohar Plateau with $75 million loan provided by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).
The project will improve the livelihood of about 22,000 farming households by bringing irrigation to 11,500 hectares of agricultural land that used to rely on irregular and unpredictable rainfall, and improving the existing irrigation networks across another 10,000 hectares. The project will also increase supplies of water for domestic use to rural communities and small towns in districts of Attock, Rawalpindi, Jhelum, and Chakwal.
ADB rural development specialists believe that without secure water sources farming in rain-fed 'barani' areas usually have low productivity and carry high risk because crops often fail when there is drought. Farming is the traditional source of livelihood across Potohar, but crop yields in the 'barani' areas have been typically less than half of those in areas with river-fed irrigation. The traditional crops in barani areas are wheat and gram in winter and sorghum, millet, groundnuts or maize in summer when rainfall is sufficient.
This project will give farmers a reliable water supply, which will increase crop and livestock productivity and therefore increase people's incomes. At the same time, it will increase households' access to cleaner water, therefore reducing sickness and mortality rates caused by waterborne diseases. The construction of dams across the Potohar Plateau started as early as the 1960s.
But they were not as beneficial as had been hoped because local communities rarely participated in their development, farmers did not get the financial and technical support necessary to switch from rainfed agriculture to irrigated farming, and there was no watershed management resulting in a high reservoir sedimentation rate.
In this new project, a more holistic approach is being used that is simultaneously looking at upstream watershed management and downstream irrigated area development. It will also involve local communities to ensure that the project is demand-driven. Out of the total loan package, $20 million will be concessional and will carry low interest rates, while the balance of $55 million will be provided from ordinary capital resources under ADB's London interbank offered rate-based lending facility.