The following is an attempt to project the various ways in which the judicial crisis in the country will move and end. Projections are then given about possible effect of each on the affairs of the country and its environment. Possible nature of American response in each case is also briefly included in view of historical factors.
PRESENT SCENARIO: Just about every one except Asif Zardari is now fed up with the engineered delay, on one pretext after another, in resolving the judiciary "issue". The architect of the delay is Asif Zardari aided perhaps by the like of Rehman Malik, Farooq Naek and maybe some hidden hands and minds from the king's camp.
It is possible that Asif Zardari's following within PPP itself may be falling as a result of this foot dragging on this major issue which cripples the Government's (read PPP's) ability to get on with the business of governing even some four months after the elections which gave the successful parties a clear mandate on what the people want done. Perhaps in order to counter this trend within PPP, Asif Zardari has embarked on a wild spree of playing the Benazir card. Buildings are being named after her.
High profile blood donation functions are being organised (it would have been more meaningful to have established a state of the art blood bank). Asif Zardari has bragged that soon a PPP worker would be President of Pakistan and his (Asif Zardari's) own son and daughters would join the jiyala President in making the Presidency resound with slogans of "Jiye Bhutto"! And so forth!
There appears to be no other reason for such delirious talk which, by the way, also completely ignores the coalition partners and the fact that according to the constitution the President is a father figure, a symbol of the nation rather than that of a political party, however popular.
In the following analysis we are projecting various possible ways in which the judicial issue might be "settled" and what might happen in the aftermath. Scenario one: Deposed judges are restored with full honour with their powers and tenure intact. PCO judges are returned to their previous positions or retained as ad hoc judges. CJP is persuaded not to insist on trying and punishing PCO judges.
POSSIBLE AFTERMATH: Lawyers would be happy and claim credit for the positive development of the issue. Their movement would then focus on President Musharraf. ML(N) and APDM parties would be happy and likewise claim credit. The two would also now focus on President Musharraf. MQM, ML(Q), JUI (F) would be unhappy in various degrees.
PPP can claim credit for having resolved the crisis and brace for what would come from the direction of the judiciary, especially in respect of the NRO and other doubtful decisions of the past! People at large, especially those whose dear ones have gone missing would be overjoyed with fresh hopes. Among them is Minoo Bheel. America would be most unhappy and may do things hurtful to Pakistan.
SCENARIO TWO: Deposed judges are restored with full honour without tinkering with their powers or tenure. The PCO judges also continue to function as regular judges, courtesy the Finance bill (this was passed on Sunday) which through a side door seeks to increase the number of judges to accommodate both sets of judges without any person-specific advantage to the PCO judges.
POSSIBLE AFTERMATH: The deposed judges, most probably, would not want to sit with the PCO judges and might well decline to resume their function in this scenario. Lawyers would be very unhappy and would continue to agitate for reversion of PCO judges back to their previous functions. ML(N) might compromise and agree in order to save the coalition and keep their side of the promise to restore the deposed judges.
ML(N)'s present massive support will erode. APDM parties would be dissatisfied and resort to agitation with the lawyers. MQM, ML(Q), JUI (F) would be somewhat satisfied. PPP can claim credit for having "settled" an important issue and brace for what would come from lawyers and APDM parties and other sections of the civic society. America would be quite happy to see the deposed judges not resuming their function. Back to square one!
SCENARIO THREE: Deposed judges are restored but with their powers and/or tenure modified. The PCO judges also continue to function as regular judges, courtesy the "Package" with person-specific amendments which ensure that they continue in office for substantial periods.
POSSIBLE AFTERMATH: Deposed judges will not agree to resume their functions. Lawyers would be most unhappy and angry. ML(N) and APDM will not accept this. PPP-ML(N) coalition would break. Widespread agitation and unrest follow. MQM, ML(Q), JUI (F) are happy. PPP can claim credit and brace for what would come by forming new alliances with MQM, ML(Q) and JUI(F)! America would support the new setup.
SCENARIO FOUR: Deposed judges are not restored. Possible aftermath: This would not be substantially different from the aftermath of scenario three. Lawyers would be up in arms and so would ML(N), after leaving the coalition, APDM parties and much of civil society. PPP may attempt to rule in a new coalition (with MQM, ML(Q), JUI (F)) provided these parties see a future for the coalition. Massive protests across the country may follow.
Free for all may lead to chaos! PPP may seek army's help. Anything could happen! America will fish in troubled waters to bring about changes which will make Pakistan more subservient to American interests. (yawajid@yahoo.com)