Vietnam's domestic coffee prices stayed stable in the past week but traders expect prices to firm this week on the back of quickly thinning stocks. Robusta beans were quoted around 35,500 dong ($2.15) per kg in Daklak, Vietnam's largest coffee growing province, unchanged from the last two weeks but still about 3 percent higher than the level at the beginning of July, traders said on Tuesday.
Coffee prices in Vietnam have risen about 30 percent in the past year owing to higher world prices. "Prices could rise to 36,000 dong per kg this week as supply is running out fast and fresh beans from the new crop will not be available until early November," a trader in Buon Ma Thuot, the capital of Daklak, said.
The coffee crop year in the Southeast Asian country runs from October to September. Another trader in Buon Ma Thuot said discounts to London September contracts were also quoted at around $170 a tonne for robusta grade 2, 5 percent black and broken beans.
The discounts meant Vietnamese robusta prices would be steady from last week at around $2,150 a tonne, unchanged from last week.
Last week the government estimated coffee exports in July would rise 22.8 percent over the same period last year to 1.17 million bags, but cumulative shipments between October 2007 and this month would fall 20.7 percent to 883,000 tonnes, or 14.72 million 60-kg bags.
Earlier this month, German analyst F.O. Licht said Vietnam would get 21.5 million 60-kg bags from its next harvest, due to start in October. The next harvest would be 23 percent higher than this year's output of 17.5 million bags as estimated by both the US Department of Agriculture and the International Coffee Organisation.
Traders have also forecast a bumper crop in Vietnam due to sufficient water supply and higher prices this year, with 2008/2009 output expected to reach between 20.8 million and 22 million bags.